TechFlow, December 9 — 10x Research shared content from its prediction market research report on social media. The report指出 that although prediction markets appear to function as collective intelligence machines, data shows accuracy and profitability are actually driven by a small number of informed elites who price probabilities, hedge risk exposure, and extract premiums from retail-driven long-tail bets.
The report analyzes that most users behave like "emotional bettors," trading discipline and edge for dopamine and narratives, while a small group systematically profits from mispriced optimism, order flow imbalances, and late-stage convergence. The firm stated that with prediction markets expected to expand significantly by 2026, now is the right time to conduct in-depth research, as easily accessible edges will disappear once liquidity deepens. Part three will provide ten actionable trading frameworks and practical rules.
