TechFlow news, December 8 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the macro environment toward year-end presents a stark contrast: conflicting signals on U.S. labor and inflation, while Japan prepares to exit its ultra-loose policy. The U.S. government shutdown delayed data releases, but the latest initial jobless claims fell to 191,000, the lowest in nearly three years. On the other hand, ADP reported a net loss of around 32,000 private-sector jobs, with weak manufacturing hiring. The September PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, while core PCE also dipped to 2.8%, indicating easing inflation. These figures support market bets on another rate cut in December. However, uncertainty over the next Fed chair has increased volatility. Reports from Trump's camp suggest Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, could succeed Powell. His nomination probability surged from 30% at the end of November to 73%, pushing bond yields higher.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has completely reversed its policy stance. According to The Japan Times, officials lean toward raising the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 19 meeting—the highest level since 1995. Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that economic and wage outlooks have improved, and monetary conditions can withstand higher rates, prompting rises in both the yen and Japanese government bond yields. Divergent U.S.-Japan policies are undermining carry trades and pressuring global risk assets.
Against this macro backdrop, the Bitcoin market remains in adjustment. Glassnode data shows negative ETF flows, declining futures open interest, and funding rates turning neutral, suggesting institutional caution. The options market delivers even more telling signals: implied volatility has broadly declined, with short-term contract IV dropping from 57% to 48%, mid-term from 52% to 45%, and long-term from 49% to 47%, reflecting reduced expectations for price swings. Meanwhile, the short-term 25-delta skew plunged from 18.6% to 8.4%, indicating a rapid easing of prior panic-driven demand for puts, though longer-term adjustments remain slower. Capital flows previously focused on buying puts have shifted toward calls following price stabilization.
Another data platform, Amberdata, shows its risk reversal indicator stood at approximately -4.8 and -4.9 for late November and December, meaning put options still command a premium over calls, as investors continue hedging downside risks. Traders noted that large players have lowered their year-end bullish targets for Bitcoin from all-time highs to a range of $100,000–$118,000, while heavily buying puts between $80,000 and $88,000.
In summary, near-term drivers include the Fed’s rate cut expectations amid uncertainty over Hassett’s nomination, potential BOJ rate hikes, and mixed data. Bitcoin options markets reflect compressed implied volatility, softening skew, yet persistently negative risk reversals—conflicting signals. The $80,000–$82,000 range is widely seen as a critical support zone for Bitcoin. Ahead of policy decisions, risk management strategies will be crucial, with market participants adopting approaches such as long-term bullish positioning hedged with puts or building Gamma exposure during low volatility periods.
