TechFlow news, November 24 — According to Jinshi Data, a research report from CITIC Securities stated that New York Fed President Williams hinted at further rate cuts in December, reversing market expectations. Currently, the market believes there is a 70% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The Federal Reserve will enter its blackout period starting November 29. Before the blackout, Powell has no scheduled public speeches or media interviews. Therefore, comments from Williams, considered his "close ally," could be the last opportunity for a Fed official to influence market expectations. We maintain our previous view that the December meeting may result in a "close call" rate cut of 25bps. For markets, the shift in rate cut expectations, combined with progress on the "28-point" plan and reports that the Trump administration is considering allowing exports of H200 chips to China, means macro factors are unlikely to weigh on markets in the short term. Instead, markets may focus more on issues such as AI company bond issuance and cryptocurrency trends.
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