The Lament of the Empty, Bitcoin Plays Dirty
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The Lament of the Empty, Bitcoin Plays Dirty
When the bull market comes, what does it have to do with you?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights"It's already $18,000, yet all the chat groups remain lifeless—no one even sends red packets," said investor Ma Yue.
Even as Bitcoin continues breaking new highs since 2018, China’s cryptocurrency communities remain quiet.
Compared to the spectacular scenes of nationwide price predictions in 2018 and fierce bull-bear battles in 2019, enthusiasm for this 2020 bull market has been notably muted.
The celebration is coming from the Western Hemisphere. In the past third quarter, inflows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reached $719 million. These funds provided solid "flooring" for Bitcoin’s rise and absorbed selling pressure. As a result, this bull run is also known as the “Grayscale Bull” or “Institutional Bull.”
Based on previous cycles, each Bitcoin rally creates new millionaires and multimillionaires. This year is slightly different—there are fewer celebrations, fewer screenshots showing profits, and people look around puzzled: who actually made money?
The bull market is here, but I missed out
"So bleak, so cold. This year's bull market feels completely different from before—no red packets, no dreams of instant wealth, no downloading Autohome app, no rallying friends to trade coins, no talk of 'one coin, one beauty queen'..."
While Bitcoin surged relentlessly—breaking through $12,000, $14,000, and $16,000 within a month, reaching its highest level since January 2018—China’s crypto trading circles remained eerily silent.
"I can’t feel any excitement at all—not even a single red packet," investor Ma Yue said. "I’m almost too embarrassed to admit I trade crypto. The other day, when a friend saw Bitcoin break $15,000 and asked if I’d hit it big, I just didn’t want to reply."
"This is historically the first time that Bitcoin is trading at these levels while the market is still debating whether a bull market has begun," said crypto blogger "Blockchain William."
"Many investors have the misconception that only altcoins can make you rich," Ma Yue said. Most people enter the space because of Bitcoin’s surge, yet they often avoid buying Bitcoin itself and instead chase various altcoins.
Altcoin enthusiasts follow their own logic: only altcoins can change an ordinary person’s fate.
During the end-of-2017 bull market, it was ICO projects that created legendary wealth stories, with hundreds- or even thousands-fold gains appearing one after another.
Aside from early adopters who got rich holding Bitcoin, nearly all the new elite in crypto made their fortunes through altcoins—such as Justin Sun, or early participants in NEO and Qtum.
But reality is now challenging this belief. During this bull run, while Bitcoin keeps climbing, other "altcoins" haven’t shown significant correlation. Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, only LTC rose 59% over one month, close to Bitcoin’s monthly gain of 62%.
Clearly, this bull market differs from what most Chinese investors expected. Some missed out; others have already collapsed...
"Many people sold their Bitcoin earlier during DeFi yield farming, and some short-sellers have already gone bankrupt," Ma Yue said.
Veteran traders who’ve survived multiple market cycles have become Zen-like—holding their coins quietly and making money silently.
Why wasn’t it me who profited?
"Everyone knew the halving would bring a big rally, everyone waited for it—and then it actually happened."
Bitcoin miner Zhang Fei remarked: "Everyone knew it would go up, but very few actually went all-in. Too many were just talking. The old hands thought it wouldn’t happen so fast, so most bailed out early."
According to TechFlow observations, two main reasons explain why Chinese investors missed out: buying altcoins and trading futures contracts.
"Since last year, I’ve been investing part of my salary every month to buy 0.1 BTC regularly," Ma Zhuang told TechFlow. By mid-year, he had accumulated one BTC and transferred it to his wallet. However, the DeFi boom completely disrupted his plan.
"That period was crazy—DeFi mining tokens kept skyrocketing, while Bitcoin stayed flat. Group members posted daily profit updates, some doubling their money in a single day. Watching them earn felt worse than losing myself."
Eventually, Ma Zhuang couldn't resist. He moved his Bitcoin to an exchange and bought various DeFi mining tokens—Salmon, Pearl…
Soon after, DeFi tokens plummeted. When Ma Zhuang finally exited, his position had lost 60% in Bitcoin terms.
"I used to think holding Bitcoin was easy. Now I realize it’s incredibly hard—it really tests your humanity." Ma Zhuang isn't alone; many in the community "hold a bunch of altcoins, but not Bitcoin."
Worse off are the leveraged short-sellers. As Bitcoin climbed higher, relying on past two-year patterns, they believed in an imminent correction and opened short positions at $12,000 and $15,000.
No one expected Bitcoin’s chart to keep rising past $18,000 without any pullback.
"A friend ignored warnings and went bankrupt from leveraged trading," Zhang Fei said. Many miners he knows who traded futures ended badly.
So who are those able to hold onto their coins?
"The key is not being short on cash," Zhang Fei concluded.
Wang Yang, founder of Taobi, summarized his strategy for holding through volatility: "When prices rise, I have mining machines and coins, so my assets appreciate. When prices fall, I have cash to buy more coins and equipment. Whether it rises, falls, or stays flat—I'm prepared either way."
"No leverage, no futures, just storing coins in cold wallets," Wang Yang said. "I’m not afraid—bring it on. Up, down, or flat, I'm ready."
During the DeFi craze, Zhang Fei also invested in some platform vaults: "We lend our Bitcoin to platforms for fixed weekly interest payments, so we don’t sell our coins."
In other words, only well-capitalized whales can withstand volatility while still participating in trending opportunities.
Zhang Fei added that the perception of widespread missing out may be due to "survivorship bias"—many large holders he knows don’t speak publicly. "One big boss is ruthless—holding 1,000 BTC, completely unmoved."
While Ma Zhuangs chased the DeFi wave, institutional investors from Wall Street quietly accumulated Bitcoin.
"If the 2017 rally was driven by retail investors, this second-half surge is being propelled by institutional capital," reported CCTV Finance on the 18th.
Bitcoin is being taken over by Wall Street
If previous bull markets were mainly retail and crypto insider parties, this one is led by institutional capital. So retail investors missing out is understandable.
Wealthy Western capital players have long eyed Bitcoin.
On November 18, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, Mexico’s third-richest man and founder of retail giant Grupo Salinas, tweeted a recommendation of the Bitcoin book *The Bitcoin Standard*, stating that Bitcoin protects citizens’ assets from government seizure and that he has allocated 10% of his liquid assets to Bitcoin.
Additionally, some crypto project entities themselves are major Bitcoin holders—for example, Block.One behind EOS publicly disclosed holding 140,000 BTC, and the Tezos Foundation holds 24,000 BTC.
Statistics show that among public large Bitcoin holders, besides funds like Grayscale and CoinShares, there’s also Nasdaq-listed MicroStrategy. On August 11, MicroStrategy announced it had purchased 21,454 BTC (worth over $250 million at the time) as part of its treasury reserves.
According to the latest data from Bitcoin Treasuries, 15 public companies, 3 private firms, and 5 ETF-type funds have invested in Bitcoin. Together, these institutions hold 84,229 BTC, representing 4.01% of the total supply.
Among these major Bitcoin accumulators, the most prominent is Grayscale Investments.
At the time of writing, Grayscale holds 513,392 BTC, accounting for 2.44% of the total supply.
Since July this year, Grayscale’s investment in Bitcoin has steadily increased. In Q3 alone, inflows into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) reached $719 million, averaging $55.3 million per week.
Macro investor Dan Tapiero noted that Grayscale’s purchases accounted for 27% of newly mined Bitcoin in Q1, rising to 77% in Q3. In other words, they’ve significantly boosted demand and absorbed market "selling pressure."
According to Grayscale’s Q3 disclosure, 81% of buyers of its products are institutional investors, followed by accredited investors and family offices (each 8%), including Rothschild & Co.
Thus, this Bitcoin bull market is dubbed the "Grayscale Bull" or "Institutional Bull," primarily driven by Wall Street capital.
Per the latest Glassnode data, the number of Bitcoin whales (addresses holding over 1,000 BTC) remains near historical highs. Within the past six months, addresses holding 1,000 BTC have increased by 88, and those holding 10,000 BTC have risen by 6.
With institutions rushing in, how much opportunity is left for retail investors?
Six months after Bitcoin’s third halving, it finally began its sharp upward trajectory. Some Bloomberg analysts even suggest Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2025.
How many people can afford a $100,000-per-coin Bitcoin? As the price climbs, Bitcoin is drifting further from ordinary people—and increasingly distant from Chinese investors.
Bitcoin, once seen as a vehicle for social mobility, may have fulfilled its purpose. Large holders like Zhang Fei and Wang Yang, having completed initial accumulation, possess both financial resilience and the flexibility to participate in every trend. Meanwhile, retail investors like Ma Zhuang are mostly being taught harsh lessons by the market. At the same time, Wall Street capital is watching closely and charging in.
As Bitcoin rockets upward, Ma Yue expressed concern: "With such rapid acceleration, are you guys really not afraid?"
Ma Yue noted that starting October 2017, Bitcoin surged for five consecutive weeks—just like this year. "If history repeats itself, then Bitcoin should crash once it hits $20,000."
(Names Ma Yue, Zhang Fei, and Ma Zhuang are pseudonyms, respecting interviewees’ privacy.)
*TechFlow reminds all investors to beware of high-risk chasing. The views expressed in this article do not constitute investment advice.
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