Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran Rejects U.S. Peace Plan, Crude Oil Rises; AI Infrastructure Investment Surges, U.S. Tech Stocks Hit New High
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Bitget UEX Daily Report | Iran Rejects U.S. Peace Plan, Crude Oil Rises; AI Infrastructure Investment Surges, U.S. Tech Stocks Hit New High
Overall, institutions believe that short-term volatility will revolve around data releases and events; however, the long-term upward revision of AI-related capital expenditures (e.g., ByteDance’s 25% increase) and the trend toward supply-chain localization will support the performance of technology and related assets. Investors are advised to focus on sector rotation and risk hedging.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsI. Top News
Federal Reserve Updates
Chicago Fed President Warns of AI’s Double-Edged Sword Effect
- Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, speaking at the Stanford Conference, noted that if AI-driven productivity gains materialize as expected, interest rates may rise; conversely, failure to deliver could trigger stagflation.
- Businesses and households may have already overextended consumption and investment based on optimistic AI expectations—potentially overheating the economy.
- Market impact: Investors are reminded that the AI boom is not risk-free; the Fed’s policy path may diverge significantly depending on real-world AI adoption, warranting cautious rate expectations.
International Commodities
Saudi Aramco Q1 Profits Beat Expectations Amid Lingering Hormuz Disruption Risks
- Saudi Aramco reported adjusted net profit of $33.6 billion for Q1 2026, up 26% year-on-year. Full utilization of its east-west pipeline has helped mitigate global energy shocks.
- CEO Amin Nasser warned that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for more than several weeks, supply shortages could persist into 2027.
- Market impact: Reinforces energy supply uncertainty, intensifying short-term oil price volatility and underscoring the strategic importance of alternative transport routes.
II. Market Recap
Commodities & FX Performance
- Spot gold: ~$4,688/oz, -0.57%.
- Spot silver: ~$80.20/oz, -0.12%.
- WTI crude: $98.82/bbl, +3.56%, with heightened volatility driven by potential Hormuz disruptions; Saudi Aramco’s remarks further amplified supply concerns.
- Brent crude: $104.60/bbl, +3.35%, rising in tandem as shipping disruption risks lifted the premium.
- U.S. Dollar Index: 97.84, +0.15%, exhibiting modest fluctuations amid hawkish Fed commentary—though AI-related uncertainties are constraining upside momentum.
Cryptocurrency Performance
- BTC: +1.19% over 24H, currently trading near $88,168, continuing its sideways-upward trend.
- ETH: +1.41% over 24H, currently trading near $2,357.
- Total crypto market cap: +1.9% over 24H, now approximately $2.93 trillion.
- Liquidations: ~$376 million liquidated in 24H, including ~$249 million in short positions.
- Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap: BTC is currently trading near $81,603. A dense cluster of high-leverage short positions lies between $82,000–$83,000; a sustained breakout above this zone could trigger cascading short liquidations and amplify upward volatility. A dense zone of leveraged long positions exists near $79,800–$80,500; a breakdown below this level may trigger short-term long liquidation cascades and rapid pullbacks.
U.S. Equity Index Performance
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.02% to 49,609.16—continuing its narrow-range consolidation, highlighting defensive appeal.
- S&P 500: +0.84% to 7,398.93—reaching a new all-time high, led by tech-weighted stocks.
- Nasdaq Composite: +1.71% to 26,247.08—also hitting a record high, strongly driven by AI infrastructure themes.
Tech Giants’ Updates
- Apple (AAPL): $293.32, +2.05% (new closing high), buoyed by rumors of potential Intel foundry orders boosting supply-chain confidence.
- Microsoft (MSFT): $415.12, -1.34%, drawing attention after a prominent hedge fund substantially reduced its stake.
- Google (GOOGL): $400.80, +0.71%, with continued investor appetite for its AI search and cloud offerings.
- Amazon (AMZN): $272.68, +0.56%, reflecting steady performance across e-commerce and cloud services.
- NVIDIA (NVDA): $215.20, +1.75%, still benefiting from robust AI chip demand—but investors are beginning to diversify allocations.
- Meta (META): $609.63, -1.16%, facing competitive pressures in advertising.
- Tesla (TSLA): $428.35, +4.02%, supported by improved outlooks for EV and robotics businesses. Core summary: AI infrastructure investment logic is broadening beyond discrete chips toward full-stack solutions, with capital shifting toward memory, foundry services, and diversified hardware.
Sector Movement Highlights
Semiconductor sector surged over 10% (with multiple stocks posting extraordinary gains)
- Key names: Micron Technology (+15.49%), SanDisk (+16.6%), AMD (+11.44%), Intel (+13.96%), Qualcomm (+8.17%).
- Catalysts: AI data centers are evolving from chatbots to intelligent agents; memory chip shortages combined with surging global AI capex (ByteDance up 25%) are lifting the sector. Investor focus on “non-NVIDIA” infrastructure investments has intensified markedly.
III. In-Depth U.S. Stock Analysis
1. Lumentum (LITE) – The Dawn of Optical Interconnect
Event Summary: Lumentum will be officially added to the Nasdaq-100 Index before U.S. market open on May 18, 2026, replacing Costa (CSGP). As a leading optical module provider, its products are widely deployed in high-speed AI data center interconnects. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this inclusion as confirmation of optical communications’ strategic role in AI compute networks—and anticipate surging future demand for data center interconnects. Investment Insight: AI infrastructure investment is expanding from compute to transmission layers. Optical module firms may enter a prolonged growth phase; ongoing monitoring of order flow and technical progress is warranted.
2. Intel (INTC) – Apple Foundry Deal Confirmed
Event Summary: Apple and Intel have reached a preliminary agreement on chip manufacturing, potentially ending TSMC’s exclusive dominance in advanced nodes. Market Interpretation: Analysts regard this as the strongest validation yet of Intel’s foundry turnaround—and a relief for Apple’s AI capacity constraints. The global advanced-node landscape may undergo structural reshaping. Investment Insight: U.S. domestic supply chain security initiatives are accelerating, creating valuation re-rating potential for domestic players like Intel—but execution risk remains critical to monitor.
3. Palantir (PLTR) – Direct Competition from OpenAI & Anthropic
Event Summary: OpenAI is building a data integration platform and replicating Palantir’s “Frontline Deployment Engineer” model; Anthropic has likewise entered the fray, with several former Palantir employees on its team. Market Interpretation: William Blair analysts note intensifying pressure on Palantir’s traditional strengths from AI incumbents—marking the onset of a full-blown market share battle. Investment Insight: Competition in AI-powered analytics and enterprise deployment services is heating up rapidly; Palantir must accelerate product iteration to retain leadership.
4. Microsoft (MSFT) – Hedge Fund Slashes Stake
Event Summary: Prominent hedge fund TCI reduced its Microsoft stake from 10% to 1%, ending nearly a decade of ownership, while simultaneously increasing its Alphabet position to 5%. Market Interpretation: The fund cites structural threats posed by AI to Office and Azure, alongside MSFT’s >12% YTD price decline. Investment Insight: AI is fundamentally reshaping software and cloud service dynamics; legacy giants must accelerate transformation, and investors should closely track business restructuring progress.
IV. Cryptocurrency Project Updates
1. This week, large one-time token unlocks are scheduled for AVAX, STRK, and SEI. Notably, AVAX will unlock 1.67 million tokens on May 12, valued at ~$17.25 million.
2. Digital Asset—a blockchain platform serving major banks and trading firms—is raising a new funding round. According to sources, its valuation stands at ~$2 billion, with participation from a16z crypto.
3. Analyst Yashu Gola notes ETH/BTC has declined over 35% in the past year and is currently repeating the bearish structure observed from 2024 to 2025—suggesting further downside remains possible. Technically, ETH/BTC has been consistently capped by a descending trendline dating back to 2022, with repeated failed breakouts—including one that preceded a nearly 70% drop. In August 2025, ETH/BTC tested this trendline again, met resistance, retreated, and broke below the 20-month EMA (~0.034), signaling persistent bearish dominance. If weakness continues, the next key downside target sits near 0.0176—roughly 40% lower than current levels and corresponding to the 2020 cycle low.
4. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated yesterday that he remains cautious on Bitcoin’s trajectory, viewing the current rally as a recovery rebound following a sharp correction—not yet confirming the start of a new bull market. He points out that although the market recovered after BTC fell from $125,000 to $60,000, multiple on-chain metrics have yet to reach historical bear-market bottom ranges—for example, long-term holder (LTH) accumulation patterns remain absent, and the market hasn’t undergone a full cycle of spot selling and panic capitulation.
5. On May 10, Michael Saylor stated in an interview that one of his top-conviction trends is the convergence of BTC and DeFi ecosystems. He highlighted rapid growth in yield-bearing tokens built on STRC, with some protocols reporting TVL expansion at a pace of “$1 million per hour.”
Saylor noted that certain DeFi protocols are already offering 8–11% yield products backed by STRC, further amplified via 3x–5x recursive leverage. He forecasts the yield-token market will evolve into a multi-billion-dollar industry within the coming months.
V. Today’s Market Calendar
Data Release Schedule
Key Event Previews
- Circle Earnings Release: Scheduled today—watch for stablecoin business performance and profitability.
- Cerebras IPO: Set for May 14; oversubscribed 20x, with pricing range likely to be raised.
Additionally, this week’s macro focus centers on the U.S. April CPI report, detailed below:
Tuesday 15:15 (UTC+8): FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President John Williams participates in a monetary policy panel discussion;
Tuesday 20:15: U.S. ADP employment change for the week ending April 25;
Tuesday 20:30: U.S. April CPI (MoM & YoY);
Wednesday 04:30: U.S. API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8;
Wednesday 20:30: U.S. April PPI (MoM & YoY);
Friday 05:30: Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivers a speech;
Friday 21:15: U.S. April industrial production (MoM).
This week marks a pivotal Fed personnel transition: Kevin Warsh, nominated as next Fed Chair, is expected to receive Senate confirmation on Monday and formally assume leadership from Jerome Powell on May 15. In U.S. equities, major index futures edged slightly lower Monday. Although Q1 earnings season is nearing completion, corporate reports over the coming days will remain critical drivers of stock prices.
Institutional Views:
Multiple investment banks observe that markets are at a critical inflection point where AI investment logic is shifting from “single-point compute” to “full-stack infrastructure.” Previously undervalued segments—including Intel, Micron, and AMD—are seeing significant inflows, while NVIDIA—though still dominant—shows early signs of a “baton-passing” dynamic. Geopolitically, stalled Iran peace talks weigh on oil prices, but the resumption of U.S.-China trade negotiations offers a buffer for risk assets. Crypto markets benefit from sustained ETF inflows (despite near-term volatility) and accelerated institutional tokenization—supporting a neutral-to-bullish medium-term outlook for both BTC and ETH. Overall, institutions expect near-term volatility to revolve around data releases and event catalysts, but upward revisions to long-term AI capex (e.g., ByteDance +25%) and supply-chain localization trends will continue supporting tech and related assets. Investors are advised to monitor sector rotation and hedging strategies.
Disclaimer: The above content was compiled using AI-assisted search and verified manually prior to publication. It does not constitute investment advice. Data presented herein may contain unavoidable discrepancies; please rely on real-time market data for decision-making.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
