Strong Data and Escalating Tariffs: Crypto Market Risk-Off Pullback
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Strong Data and Escalating Tariffs: Crypto Market Risk-Off Pullback
The current RSI index is 44.59, indicating neutral conditions. The Fear & Greed Index is 32 (indicating fear), marking the first time since February this year that it has entered the fear zone.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Hotcoin Research
Crypto Market Performance
The current total cryptocurrency market cap stands at $3.78 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.8%, or $2.18 trillion. Stablecoin market cap is $297.2 billion, up 1.58% over the past 7 days. This marks the first weekly decline in the last three months, with USDT representing 58.65% of the stablecoin market.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most declined while a few rose: ASTER gained 117.01% over 7 days, XPL rose 64.59%, SNX increased 73.35%, MERL climbed 58.95%, and AVNT advanced 49.11%.
This week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $897 million; U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $795 million.
Market Outlook (September 29 - October 3):
The current RSI stands at 44.59, indicating neutrality. The Fear & Greed Index is at 32 (indicating fear), marking the first time since February this year entering the fear zone. The Altseason Index is at 71.
BTC core range: $105,000–115,000
ETH core range: $3,700–4,100
SOL core range: $191–210
Short-term trading (1–3 days): The market is currently at a critical technical juncture deciding its direction, with potential for heightened short-term volatility. A cautious, wait-and-see strategy is advised.
Medium-term positioning (several weeks): Monitor macro fundamentals such as Federal Reserve policy moves and U.S. PCE inflation data. If BTC can hold the key support level of $115,500, it may still challenge new highs in the medium term.
Long-term investment (months or longer): Institutional demand (e.g., sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs) and global liquidity conditions remain core supports. Consider a strategy of accumulating gradually during dips.
Understanding the Present
Weekly Major Events Recap
1. On September 23, market reports indicated that DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) listed the 21Shares Dogecoin ETF under the ticker TDOG. While this listing does not imply regulatory approval or any formal clearance process, being listed on DTCC’s website is part of the standard procedure for launching new ETFs.
2. On September 23, UXLINK announced a security vulnerability affecting its multisig wallet, resulting in a large amount of cryptocurrency being illegally transferred to CEXs and DEXs. The team is working with security experts to identify the cause and contain the situation, has contacted exchanges to freeze suspicious deposits, and filed police and regulatory reports to pursue legal accountability and asset recovery. UXLINK will continue to provide transparent updates. Earlier reports estimated losses exceeding $11 million.
3. On September 24, according to Defillama data, Aster generated $7.04 million in revenue over the past 24 hours, a record high, surpassing Hyperliquid ($2.79 million) and ranking behind only Tether ($21.99 million) and Circle ($7.72 million).
4. The U.S. SEC and CFTC will jointly host a roundtable on September 29 to coordinate crypto regulatory policies.
5. On September 25, Griffin AI (GAIN), a new token launched on Binance Alpha, began a one-sided drop at 7:27 AM Beijing time, falling over 95% within an hour to a low of $0.005. It is currently trading at $0.00758, with a remaining market cap of just $2.58 million on BSC.
6. On September 25, San Francisco Fed President Daly stated she “fully supports” the Fed’s rate cut decision last week and indicated further cuts may be needed going forward.
7. On September 26, U.S. President Trump announced that starting October 1, 2025: a 25% tariff will be imposed on all “heavy (large) trucks” manufactured outside the U.S.; a 50% tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products; a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture; and a 100% tariff on all branded or patented pharmaceutical products unless the company is building its drug manufacturing facility in the U.S.
Macroeconomics
1. On September 25, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 fell to 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025. The expected figure was 235,000, and the previous value was revised from 231,000 to 232,000.
2. On September 26, the U.S. August core PCE price index year-on-year was 2.9%, matching expectations and the prior reading. The month-on-month core PCE price index was 0.2%, also meeting expectations, with the prior revised from 0.3% to 0.2%.
3. On September 27, according to the Fed Funds Rate Monitor, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October reached 90.8%.
ETFs
Data shows that between September 22 and September 26, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had net outflows of $897 million. As of September 26, GBTC (Grayscale) has seen cumulative outflows of $24.118 billion and currently holds $19.272 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) holds $83.706 billion. The total market cap of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is $144.473 billion.
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs had net outflows of $795 million.
Looking Ahead
Upcoming Events
1. TOKEN2049 Singapore 2025 will take place in Singapore on October 1–2, 2025;
2. SuiFest will be held in Singapore on October 2;
3. Blockchain Life 2025 will take place in Dubai, UAE, on October 28–29, 2025.
Project Updates
1. FTX will conduct its next round of fund distribution on September 30, reducing the disputed claims reserve by $1.9 billion (from $6.5 billion to $4.3 billion). The record date is set for August 15. This distribution targets allowed claimants, general unsecured creditors, and convenience claimants who did not receive prior distributions. Distribution will be processed via BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer.
2. L1 blockchain Kaia (formerly Klaytn) announced that the FNSA-to-KAIA token swap service will end on September 30, along with the complete shutdown of the legacy Finschia chain operations.
3. Arbitrum-based modular trading platform Kinto will shut down. Wallet withdrawals and asset retrieval will remain open until September 30. The ERA airdrop is expected to be distributed by October 15.
4. Yei Finance’s TGE registration window on the Sei ecosystem remains open until September 30.
5. Starknet will launch BTC staking on mainnet on September 30. Additionally, the unstaking period will be reduced from 21 days to 7 days.
6. SBI Holdings will acquire a majority stake in Web3 media company CoinPost, with the transaction expected to close on October 1, 2025.
Key Events
1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a joint statement announcing a coordinated roundtable on September 29. Potential discussion areas include 24/7 markets, prediction markets, perpetual contracts, portfolio margining, innovation exemptions, and DeFi.
2. The UK will hold the trial of Qian Zhimin, the alleged mastermind behind the laundering of 60,000 BTC, on September 29, 2025. Qian Zhimin (also known as Zhang Yadi) is the primary suspect in the Tianjin-based Blue Sky Geely illegal fundraising case involving 43 billion yuan, arrested in April 2024 and charged with two counts of money laundering.
3. Strategy will distribute cash dividends for four preferred shares on September 30.
4. U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott stated that the Crypto Market Structure Bill will be finalized by September 30.
5. On September 30, Australia will release its central bank interest rate decision.
6. On October 1 at 20:15, the U.S. will release September ADP employment change (in thousands).
7. On October 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the initial jobless claims (in thousands) for the week ending September 27.
8. On October 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the September unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls (in thousands).
Token Unlocks
1. Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.75 million tokens at 15:00 on September 2, valued at approximately $25.92 million, representing 0.64% of circulating supply.
2. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 15.88 million tokens at 08:00 on September 3, valued at approximately $2.86 million, representing 0.42% of circulating supply.
3. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.84 million tokens at 08:00 on September 5, valued at approximately $12.42 million, representing 1.277% of circulating supply.
4. Mocaverse (MOCA) will unlock 2.46 million tokens at 08:00 on September 5, valued at approximately $165,000, representing 0.06% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research and investment institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for investors. Through our flagship publications "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we dissect market trends. Our exclusive column "Top Picks" (powered by AI and expert dual screening) helps you identify high-potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our analysts engage directly with you through live streams to interpret hot topics and forecast market movements. We believe that warm, consistent support combined with professional guidance empowers more investors to navigate market cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
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