HTX DeepThink: BTC跌破支撑引发连锁抛压，market sentiment enters a fragile tipping point
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HTX DeepThink: BTC跌破支撑引发连锁抛压，market sentiment enters a fragile tipping point
Oversold technical indicators, bearish positioning in the options market, and rising panic sentiment indicate that the crypto market is currently in a fragile state.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Recently, Bitcoin broke below a key support level, triggering a rapid deterioration in overall crypto market sentiment. In this column, Chloe from HTX Research (@ChloeTalk1) analyzes the current fragile market structure by examining Bitcoin's technical patterns, derivatives market dynamics, and upcoming macroeconomic data.
Market Imbalance Worsens, Panic Sentiment Rises
As of early morning on September 26, Bitcoin fell below the $114,500–$115,000 support zone, with the latest price around $112,967. Over $92.7 million worth of Bitcoin flowed out from exchanges within a week, while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) declined, resulting in over $400 million in liquidations. Technically, the 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day and converged with the 100-day moving average; the RSI has dropped to 36, approaching oversold territory, yet no clear reversal signal has emerged. The cost basis for short-term holders is approximately $111,400, and whales have sold about 147,000 BTC over the past month—these factors are weighing heavily on market sentiment.
Options market data shows prevailing bearish sentiment. Deribit’s “max pain” point stands at $110,000, and perpetual contract funding rates have dropped to around 4%, indicating weak speculative activity. The share of put options trading has increased, and the Put/Call volume ratio continues to decline, suggesting investors are favoring in-the-money puts to lock in profits. At the same time, open interest is near historical highs and gamma exposure is peaking, forcing market makers to hedge during downturns, thereby amplifying price volatility.
Market sentiment is similarly pessimistic. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 28 on September 25, falling into the “fear” range—down from 44 the previous day and 53 the prior week—indicating rapidly deteriorating investor sentiment. According to the index definition, 0–25 represents extreme fear, 26–46 fear, and 47–54 neutrality. This shift suggests the market is moving from neutral toward clear risk aversion. When the U.S. stock market volatility index (VIX) exceeds 16, it signals expectations of heightened volatility over the next 30 days. The financial analysis platform CoffeewithQ notes that a VIX above 16 does not indicate panic, but rather that traders expect increased market volatility due to upcoming major economic data releases, geopolitical risks, or technical weaknesses. A VIX between 16 and 20 is defined as “rising volatility,” 20–30 indicates growing tension, and levels above 30 signify panic. We believe the current fear level presents a good opportunity for accumulation.
Future Price Movements Will Be Driven by Key Macroeconomic Data
Next week’s macroeconomic data could be pivotal in shaping market sentiment. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release August’s personal income and spending data on September 26. Current consensus forecasts anticipate 0.3% month-on-month growth in personal income and 0.5% growth in personal consumption expenditures. The PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% MoM and reach 2.7% YoY. The core PCE price index, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, is projected to ease to 0.2% MoM but remain near 2.9% YoY. If core PCE comes in higher than expected, the Fed may remain cautious, which would weigh on risk assets. Following that, the September non-farm payrolls report will be released on October 3. Market expectations point to slowing job growth. Stronger-than-expected data could further lift rate expectations, increasing downward pressure on crypto markets, while weaker data might alleviate selling pressure. Additionally, the U.S. balance of payments data on September 29 and the early-October ISM manufacturing index are also key indicators of economic momentum.
In summary, technical oversold conditions, bearish positioning in the options market, and rising panic sentiment indicate that the crypto market is currently in a fragile state. In the short term, the market may continue testing the $110,000 support level while watching for a potential capitulation event. If this key support holds and is accompanied by softer-than-expected core PCE and employment data, a sharp rebound could follow.
Note: The content of this article is not investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.
About HTX
HTX was founded in 2013. After 12 years of development, it has evolved from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem encompassing digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and more.
As a leading global Web3 gateway, HTX adheres to a strategic vision of global expansion, ecosystem prosperity, wealth effect, and security compliance, delivering comprehensive, secure, and reliable value and services to crypto enthusiasts worldwide.
For more information about HTX, visit https://www.htx.com/ or HTX Square, and follow us on X, Telegram, and Discord. For inquiries, contact glo-media@htx-inc.com.
About HTX Research
HTX Research is the dedicated research arm of HTX, conducting in-depth analysis across a broad range of areas including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends. It produces comprehensive reports and professional assessments, aiming to deliver data-driven insights and strategic foresight. HTX Research plays a critical role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analytics, HTX Research remains at the forefront of innovation, driving thought leadership and deepening understanding of evolving market dynamics. Visit us.
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