How to participate in Polymarket airdrop by Da Mao?
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How to participate in Polymarket airdrop by Da Mao?
To enter the top 10%, your average bet amount must exceed $500.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: @mattdotfi
Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
This article provides a detailed analysis of whether participating in Polymarket's airdrop mining is still worthwhile at this stage.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction platform built on the Polygon blockchain that allows users to bet on events by choosing between two possible outcomes. Polymarket gained public attention due to betting activities surrounding the 2024 U.S. presidential election. During the 2024 U.S. presidential election, odds on Polymarket indicated Donald Trump was more likely to win than Kamala Harris. Many users placed bets accordingly, and following Trump's successful campaign, Polymarket grew increasingly popular.
Polymarket currently has no official token, but the team has repeatedly hinted at launching one. They have completed three rounds of cryptocurrency venture funding, including a Series C round last week. While details about this latest round are limited, sources from June suggested they aim to raise $200 million at a valuation exceeding $1 billion.
Source: Crunchbase
About the Airdrop
A $1 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) for the Polymarket token appears to be market consensus, but we must also consider the following factors:
Conservative estimates suggest up to 10% of the total supply may be allocated to traders through airdrops, as traders are the only ones eligible—Polymarket does not have liquidity providers.
The ongoing nature of Polymarket activities could also be important, meaning you still have sufficient time to participate.
Polymarket’s prediction markets have been operating for a considerable period; CC2Ventures previously hinted that a snapshot may have already occurred last year.
If you wish to participate in airdrop farming, you need to place bets on the market. The following data can serve as reference:
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Cumulative trading volume has reached $15.7 billion.
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An average of 24,000 active wallets place bets on Polymarket daily.
Data source: Dune Analytics
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Currently, 1.2 million wallets have interacted with the platform, half of which have placed five or more bets.
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To be among the top 10% of traders, your average bet size must exceed $500.
Data source: Dune Analytics
Conclusion
If the snapshot has not yet taken place, to qualify for the airdrop, you should place bets on markets where you have an edge and that are most likely to unfold as you expect. Additionally, to enter the top 10%, your average bet size must exceed $500. You may also need to place bets across multiple markets and maintain activity of at least once per week.
Those considering participation in this airdrop farming should first ensure they can afford losses ranging from hundreds to thousands of dollars, as over 90% of traders on any betting/trading platform lose money over the long term. However, the expected value (EV) may be high enough to offset anticipated losses.
In my view, I would only participate in airdrop farming at this stage if the token is expected to launch at a multi-billion dollar valuation. The platform's activity level and average bet sizes are unattainable for ordinary users. Statistically speaking, if you place bets on these prediction markets, you are expected to lose money over the long run.
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