One year after the halving, how has Bitcoin's data performed?
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
One year after the halving, how has Bitcoin's data performed?
After this halving, Bitcoin rose only about 46%, and the post-halving surge expected by the market did not materialize.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Green But Red
Translation: TechFlow
A full year after Bitcoin's fourth halving has yielded surprising results: the price of Bitcoin has risen only 46%, currently trading about 10% below its all-time high. This marks the weakest post-halving performance in history.
Historical Cycles vs. Today
Looking back, after the 2012 halving, Bitcoin’s price surged by 7,000%; the 2016 and 2020 halvings brought gains of 291% and 541% respectively. This time, however, Bitcoin rose only around 46% after the halving, and the anticipated post-halving rally failed to materialize.
Market Maturity and Macroeconomic Factors
One reason for this underperformance is increased macroeconomic uncertainty. Global tensions and new tariff policies have made investors more cautious. The Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index is significantly higher than in previous cycles, reflecting a market environment more inclined toward risk aversion.
At the same time, the Bitcoin market is maturing. Compared to earlier periods, volatility has notably decreased, and the profit potential for long-term holders is no longer as significant. Now, substantially pushing up prices requires larger capital inflows, and market sensitivity to price movements has diminished.
Institutionalization and Evolving Market Structure
Institutional investors are playing a greater role than ever before. The rise of spot ETFs and corporate investments has made the market more stable, but also more sensitive to macro trends.
Institutions buy during price dips and take profits during rebounds, thereby smoothing out Bitcoin’s price volatility. For example, in early May 2025, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $425.5 million in inflows, demonstrating sustained institutional interest in Bitcoin.
Mining and Production Costs
Bitcoin mining remains profitable. The current average cost to mine one Bitcoin is approximately $49,887. The pace of hardware efficiency improvements has slowed, allowing miners to use existing equipment for longer periods, reducing pressure for frequent upgrades.
Outlook and Predictions
Experts are divided on future developments. Some predict Bitcoin may undergo a period of consolidation or correction before resuming a sustainable bull run—potentially only after breaking above the $100,000 threshold. Others remain more optimistic, forecasting Bitcoin could reach between $120,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Although the explosive gains seen in past cycles have not been realized, Bitcoin is entering a new phase of more stable and sustainable growth, which may represent a healthier long-term development path.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@green_but_red
