Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: What Makes Skeptics Decide to Buy Bitcoin?
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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer: What Makes Skeptics Decide to Buy Bitcoin?
What was once out of reach has now become a reason to buy.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise
Translated by Luffy, Foresight News
Earlier this month, I delivered the closing keynote on Day One of a major national brokerage conference.
That’s notable in itself. The four largest broker-dealers—Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and UBS—oversee more than $10 trillion in client assets, and these platforms still don’t make it easy for their advisors to access Bitcoin ETFs. But as my invitation suggests, that’s changing fast.
In fact, I expect all four will be actively offering Bitcoin ETFs by year-end. That’s one reason I still believe Bitcoin ETFs will set a new record for net inflows this year, despite having seen only $3.7 billion in net flows so far in 2025, compared to $35 billion in all of 2024.
I’m not writing this to talk about broker-dealers. Instead, I want to share the story of one audience member.
If everyone stopped believing in Bitcoin, what would I have left?
The best parts of a speech often happen afterward. You step offstage, hoping for applause, and are usually met by a small crowd eager to ask follow-up questions. Those moments are gold.
At this event, one man waited patiently while two or three dozen others took their turn. Then he said:
“I’ve listened to you, and it all makes sense. But I just can’t get over the mental hurdle.”
This is a common feeling. People intellectually understand the case for investing in Bitcoin and find it compelling, but something still holds them back.
After digging into his concerns, we identified exactly what that “something” was: He was worried about what would happen to Bitcoin if nobody believed in it anymore.
“How much would Bitcoin be worth if the music suddenly stopped?” he asked.
The answer, of course, is zero. If no one in the world wanted to hold Bitcoin, its value would be nil.
I pointed out that the same is true for gold and other assets, but he insisted it was different. Maybe he’s right—after all, with gold, you at least have something tangible and shiny. With Bitcoin, you truly have nothing.
To be honest, I’ve had that same thought before—and I suspect most Bitcoin investors have too. Bitcoin’s intangible nature is indeed a challenge.
My advice: Write it down
As my new friend prepared to leave, still wearing a conflicted look, I asked him a simple question: What would it take? In other words, what conditions would need to be met for him to believe Bitcoin is here to stay?
For some people, answering this question reveals they’ll never buy Bitcoin. If you’re waiting for Bitcoin to become more popular than gold… or for its volatility to drop close to zero… then you’ll never pull the trigger.
But if you don’t have such impossible prerequisites, it’s worth asking seriously: What would it take?
Is it institutional custody? Today, publicly traded firms like Coinbase and established names like Fidelity are holding Bitcoin, with financial giants like BNY Mellon following closely behind.
Is it institutional trading? Today, Bitwise conducts crypto trading with seasoned firms like Jane Street and Cumberland/DRW.
Is it institutional adoption? Nine of the world’s ten largest hedge funds now hold Bitcoin, along with Emory University (with an $11 billion endowment), the Teacher Retirement System of Texas (managing $210 billion in assets), investment titans like Ray Dalio and Stan Druckenmiller, and many others.
Is it participation from major asset managers? Are firms like BlackRock and Invesco enough?
Is it corporate adoption? Companies like Strategy, Block, Tesla, and more than eighty other public companies are already involved.
Is it ease of access? Bitcoin ETFs exist today.
Is it adoption in investment models? BlackRock now recommends allocating 2% of portfolios to Bitcoin.
Is it regulatory clarity? Market structure legislation is expected to pass Congress this year.
Is it government adoption? The U.S. is building a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
No matter what your threshold is, write it down. Because if you’d listed just a few years ago conditions like the U.S. government holding Bitcoin or the world’s largest asset managers embracing the asset, those would have seemed impossible. Yet now, we’ve seen them happen.
My friend paused, took a deep breath, and said: “I’m going to buy Bitcoin.”
I think a lot more people will reach the same conclusion this year.
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