How to view the current crypto "garbage time"?
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How to view the current crypto "garbage time"?
A market where a "consensus" expectation collapses is more terrifying than one with merely no "price" movement.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Haotian
A few thoughts on the current state of primary and secondary crypto markets:
1) Debating bull vs bear markets is now meaningless. Remember, bull or bear isn't just about prolonged price movements and sentiment—it's primarily driven by market-wide consensus expectations.
If the prevailing belief is that most projects are "garbage," listings on exchanges become the end goal, and any actual progress made by teams is completely ignored, then we're undoubtedly in a bear market.
A market where consensus has collapsed is far more dangerous than one merely lacking price appreciation.
2) The current crypto environment feels easier than ever—yet also harder than ever.
From the early ICO days betting on decentralized infra as a first-step vision, to the last cycle’s focus on technical narrative upgrades, to institutional adoption waves and the explosive wealth effect of meme coins—now, even spot ETFs have finally been realized. We’ve got pro-crypto government support in the U.S., with regulatory frameworks and legislation on the horizon. All these “external factors” seem to be aligning positively.
Yet look inward at crypto itself: Which projects are truly irreplaceable? Which technical infrastructure has real potential for mass adoption? Which narratives won’t eventually be debunked? Which tokens can you hold long-term with confidence? Or which meme coins let you sleep soundly at night? … When faced with these “internal factors,” most people are likely confused.
Clearly, a market driven only by external tailwinds without underlying intrinsic value will remain in a state of “chaos.” If investors ignore fundamental value and fixate solely on irrational macro liquidity injections, isn’t this kind of market just unbearable?
3) So what’s the solution? Calling for a return to technical narratives won’t work if there’s no genuine innovation from established tech projects. Likewise, criticizing the irrationality of meme markets simply avoids confronting the core issue: that technology fails to materialize. All of this stems from systemic industry problems—long-standing opacity, potential manipulation, lack of regulation, and excessive profit-seeking—that have created an environment of “gamification + self-consumption.”
Breaking through this will be painful and require time. How do we properly value meaningful projects? How do we eliminate the breeding ground for valueless, extractive schemes? How do we enable new narratives to evolve sustainably?
Flip the perspective: Only after the speculative frenzy—where assets flood the market—and the subsequent market purge wipes out the crap, will real opportunities for value investing truly emerge. No matter how many garbage projects exist, there will always be teams with bold visions, innovation, execution capability, and long-term commitment to building, right?
In fact, every cycle in crypto has seen extremes of FOMO and despair—but somehow, we’ve always pushed through, often finding unexpected breakthroughs. Looking back, progress has indeed been continuous.
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Haotian | CryptoInsight
