Binance is aggressively promoting Pig Feet Rice: Is it still worth joining the TGE? What's a reasonable price for the latest Launchpool?
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Binance is aggressively promoting Pig Feet Rice: Is it still worth joining the TGE? What's a reasonable price for the latest Launchpool?
The exclusive TGE is expected to become highly competitive, reaching 16.8 U per slot, with a fair price for GUN at 0.13 USDT.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Nanzhi, Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Since February, Binance has launched five Exclusive TGEs via PancakeSwap, characterized by short duration and high per-account returns. Additionally, several BNB Holder airdrops and Launchpools have been rolled out, serving up generous "pork chop rice" meals to Binance users.
However, due to the exceptionally high returns from Exclusive TGEs, many users have engaged in an arms race of creating multiple accounts, causing both BNB commitments and oversubscription rates to climb steadily. This article therefore aims to review historical data from past Exclusive TGEs and Launchpools to infer reasonable valuations and participation strategies.
Exclusive TGE
Return Analysis
The five previous projects were MyShell, Bubblemaps, Bedrock, Particle Network, and KiloEx. MyShell, the first project, had the lowest BNB commitment at 145,106 BNB, while the most recent, KiloEx, reached 442,985 BNB—an increase of 205%.
The per-account return for each round is shown in the chart below:
Currently, the minimum guaranteed return per account remains around 50 USDT. Given the principal of 3 BNB, this translates into a return rate as high as 2.6%. Even accounting for potential BNB depreciation during circulation through IDO channels, participation remains highly worthwhile.
BNB commitments continue to rise. For reference, consider a key metric—the amount of BNB staked on Binance’s main Launchpool platform. Over the past 16 months, the average staked BNB volume was 17.87 million. Clearly, BNB supply is not a constraint; the limiting factor lies in the number of real-name accounts. However, since Binance has already announced over 200 million users, estimating an upper limit on participating accounts is no longer feasible.
Assuming a maximum commitment of 10% of Launchpool levels (i.e., 1.787 million BNB), with a project’s circulating market cap at $50 million and 20% of tokens allocated to the Exclusive TGE, the theoretical per-account return would be: 3 ÷ 1,787,000 × 50,000,000 × 20% = 16.8 USDT.
Is Shorting BNB Upon Announcement Feasible?
In the second section of the chart above, we analyzed BNB's price decline from the start to the end of each IDO. Historical data consistently shows BNB prices falling during this period. Moreover, BNB prices typically peak shortly after the Exclusive TGE announcement and are higher than at the time the TGE actually begins. Therefore, a short-selling strategy at announcement currently offers a clear and measurable profit opportunity.
Launchpool Return Estimation
The performance of the past 27 Launchpool events is shown in the chart below. A clear downward trend in returns is evident. The average annualized yield across these 27 rounds was 88%. Using this rate, the fair value of GUN would be estimated at 0.26 USDT. However, given the weaker performance of recent rounds, a more conservative estimate—using half the average yield—is advisable, leading to a justified price of 0.13 USDT.
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