TechFlow News, March 3: According to Wintermute’s market analysis report, military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran triggered risk-averse sentiment in markets, sending Bitcoin’s price down to $63,000 before rebounding near $67,000. The military operation, codenamed “Epic Fury,” commenced Saturday evening, targeting Iranian military facilities and reportedly resulting in the deaths of Iran’s top leadership and senior officials. The conflict has now lasted three days, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and airspace across the Gulf region shut down; escalation—not de-escalation—remains the prevailing trend.
Macroeconomic pressures continue mounting: oil prices surged 9%, briefly breaking above $80; analysts have raised their Brent crude forecasts to $100; gold prices approached $5,400, adding roughly $1 trillion in market value within hours; equities opened sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 500 points at one point; and the VIX Fear Index reached its highest level since 2026.
In the crypto market, although ETFs saw over $1 billion in inflows last week—ending five consecutive weeks of outflows—year-to-date net outflows still total approximately $4.5 billion, and institutional OTC trading activity remains notably subdued. The volatility indicator DVOL spiked from the 30–40 range to around 55, and options markets now price in daily volatility of 2.5–3%. Wintermute’s analysis suggests that if the conflict persists and keeps energy prices elevated, it could sustain higher inflation, delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, and thereby exert broader pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
