Dialogue with HTX Partner: Analyzing Bull and Bear Signals in the Crypto Market, Outlook on Future Trends
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Dialogue with HTX Partner: Analyzing Bull and Bear Signals in the Crypto Market, Outlook on Future Trends
This conversation delves into an in-depth discussion from multiple dimensions, including market sentiment, capital flows, and the macroeconomic environment, aiming to provide investors with a clearer basis for market assessment.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insights
Recently, Huobi HTX's featured column "Dialogue with HTX Partners" invited crypto KOLs Jason Chen, Zishi, and the HTX Investment Research Team to discuss the topic "Decoding the Path to Wealth: Where Are the Signals for a Bull-Bear Reversal?" The discussion explored multiple dimensions including market sentiment, capital flows, and the macroeconomic environment, aiming to provide investors with clearer insights for market assessment.
Current Market Sentiment: Bull or Bear?
Jason Chen shared his perspective from two angles—capital inflows and investor sentiment. He noted that bull market signals go beyond rising prices, including volume of capital inflow and investors’ willingness to spend. When certain sectors or projects are surrounded by strong conviction, investors remain willing to commit capital despite sharp price fluctuations. However, once these "enchanted" narratives become "disenchanted," investor motivation fades, leading to market cooling.
He also pointed out that debating whether it’s a bull or bear market is less meaningful than focusing on actual profitability and future earnings expectations. Currently, stablecoin balances on exchanges continue to rise while prices remain flat, indicating bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, in a rate-hiking cycle, liquidity is tightening and there is a lack of new incremental capital. Aside from rate cuts, he sees no immediate catalysts. Thus, he leans toward viewing the current phase as bearish—though exact positioning varies by individual.
Zishi approached the question through specific market events. He argued that the failure of recent narratives—such as Trump launching a token and the release of DeepSeek—led to a collapse in AI- and altcoin-related markets, validating his view. He believes that when an industry enters a period of introspection, sentiment inevitably turns bearish. Short-term indicators show Bitcoin holders and new miners starting to incur losses, consistent with bear market characteristics. Moreover, bull-bear cycles have accelerated, with volatile swings and Bitcoin dominating the market. Altcoins now only offer localized rallies. New token trends are fleeting, with liquidity highly dependent on attention—transforming the market into an “attention-driven market.”
The HTX Investment Research Team added a data- and macro-focused perspective, stating that the core theme of this cycle is the legalization and dollarization of crypto. Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed substantial institutional capital, laying a long-term foundation for industry legitimacy. Despite uncertainties brought by Trump’s policies and increased volatility in mainstream assets, indicators such as the Rainbow Chart have not yet reached bull market peaks. They emphasized that while sentiment may be bearish, the industry should still be viewed from a long-term perspective—shorter cycles do not imply the end of progress.
When asked whether typical bottom-market features are emerging, Jason Chen stated that a true bottom is characterized by prolonged sideways movement with *no one* attempting to catch the falling knife. Zishi believes real bottom signals lie in tracking “smart money”—when major players in secondary markets and industry insiders step back or exit entirely, the market gradually cools until valuations and trading volumes reach extreme pessimism, which could then set the stage for recovery.
How Much Does the Macroeconomic Environment Influence the Crypto Market?
Zishi believes Trump’s unpredictability is a key reason why the market hasn’t fully collapsed. His policies often reflect personal impulses and are difficult to forecast, increasing overall uncertainty. Movements in the U.S. stock market clearly reflect underlying market anxieties.
Jason Chen explicitly stated that the current macroeconomic environment has a negative impact on the crypto market. “A gentleman does not stand beneath a crumbling wall.” Capital inherently avoids risk and seeks certainty. When the macro backdrop is highly uncertain, capital ultimately opts for safety.
The HTX Investment Research Team added that while Trump supports cryptocurrencies, policy implementation remains uncertain. If favorable policies are stably enacted, market sentiment could rebound quickly. However, the growing chorus within the community calling blockchain a “scam” may itself signal that a bottom is forming.
In the Current Market: Should You Position Actively or Remain Cautious?
In the face of ongoing market volatility, Jason Chen advised caution, noting that unless the Federal Reserve announces policy changes on March 19, near-term catalysts appear unlikely.
Zishi shared his “speculative capital” strategy: holding all funds in USDT, only deploying capital during news-driven trades or Meme coin opportunities. When the market offers no free gains, one must trust their own judgment over consensus.
The HTX Investment Research Team proposed a dual-track approach: conservative investors can consider exchange-based wealth management products such as earning USDD. Additionally, users can monitor new asset listings on HTX to identify high-quality projects even in a bear market.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
