Will Bitcoin return to $100,000? Will the broad bull market come back?
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Will Bitcoin return to $100,000? Will the broad bull market come back?
What other positive factors are currently benefiting the crypto market?
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Mu Mu
Recently, the crypto market has faced significant downward pressure. However, many early Bitcoin participants (OGs) still believe the current bull market hasn't fully unfolded. Their reasoning: despite Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 in early 2025, its performance hasn't been as explosive as in previous bull runs. Of course, predicting the future is difficult, but there are four key factors in 2025 that may determine whether Bitcoin can once again exceed $100,000 and ignite a full-scale bull market...
Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
Discussions about governments treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset are growing. In 2024, U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis and Donald Trump both proposed establishing a national digital asset reserve. El Salvador has already classified its Bitcoin holdings as national assets, while countries like Germany and Japan are also considering similar policies. However, ideals are lofty, but reality is harsh. Whether it's Trump pushing for a federal strategic Bitcoin reserve or state-level lawmakers proposing such reserves, implementation will face numerous obstacles. Even within Trump’s own Republican Party there are deep divisions, let alone bipartisan consensus with Democrats. Recently, Trump reiterated his support for a strategic reserve on social media, and the upcoming crypto summit on March 7 has slightly boosted market confidence, at least demonstrating his firm stance. Given the current landscape, if Trump remains committed, actual implementation is possible. Even without congressional legislation, he could bypass resistance via executive order to launch a mini version of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Regardless of scale, the mere establishment of a U.S. strategic reserve would be a landmark event, prompting nations worldwide to seriously consider following suit.
Interest Rate Cuts and Loose Monetary Policy
Ample liquidity is a prerequisite for a bull market, and room for rate cuts remains in 2025. As of March 2025, the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates between 4.25% and 4.5%. The market anticipates potential rate cuts later this year. Economists predict the Fed may cut rates in May or July if economic data weakens. Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China in February 2025 triggered a trade war, potentially creating substantial pressure toward economic recession. This could force the Fed to further lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Research shows Bitcoin’s price correlates highly with global M2 money supply growth, with a correlation coefficient reaching 0.94. Historical trends indicate M2 expansion typically drives Bitcoin price increases, especially when liquidity rises and interest rates fall. On February 25, cryptocurrency analyst Bitcoindata21 posted on X: “A weaker dollar has a net positive impact on global M2—Bitcoin achieving this is just a matter of time.” Similar views were echoed by Colin Talks Crypto, who stated: “Global M2 money supply points to a major shift for Bitcoin.”
Regulatory Framework and Stablecoin Legislation
In early 2025, stablecoin market capitalization exceeded $200 billion, drawing intense global regulatory scrutiny. The EU implemented MiCA regulations in January 2025, while the U.S. Congress is reviewing stablecoin-related bills such as the Clarity for Payment Stablecoins Act and the Lummis-Gillibrand Payment Stablecoins Act. Over the past two months, an increasing number of crypto projects and exchanges have announced dismissals of prior lawsuits with the SEC, suggesting a friendlier regulatory environment may soon yield clearer regulatory frameworks. Establishing crypto regulations and stablecoin laws will bring greater clarity and certainty, enabling traditional financial institutions—already eyeing the space—to enter the crypto market and directly compete with lucrative stablecoin issuers like Tether, thereby injecting more capital and liquidity.
Ethereum Is Key to the Altcoin Bull Run
In late January, Paradigm published an article urging Ethereum core developers to accelerate protocol upgrades and achieve more milestones on its technical roadmap to maintain its leading position as a Layer 1 blockchain. Ethereum’s ecosystem holds the strongest momentum in the crypto space, particularly in advancing real-world Web3 applications—in short, “there are more serious builders and projects,” which is precisely the source of boundless expectations.
Thus, whenever Ethereum rallies, most DeFi and related ecosystems rise collectively, and competing public chains benefit from the rising tide as well. Therefore, Ethereum plays a crucial role in driving a broad bull market. There are signs of movement: 1) Shifts within the Ethereum Foundation—We’ve already seen the Ethereum Foundation increase investments in DeFi and make personnel adjustments aimed at preserving its status as a leading Layer 1 blockchain. While positive, the broader crypto ecosystem cannot rely solely on the Ethereum Foundation. Ethereum is not a company; the Foundation is merely a supporting body that can assist ecosystem growth but cannot control this decentralized network. 2) Accelerated Upgrades—Recently, several Ethereum developers have indicated at various Ethereum developer conferences that they plan to speed up protocol upgrades. Ethereum’s major 2025 upgrade, Pectra, is scheduled to launch on mainnet in April and could be the largest in history, incorporating up to 20 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), including EIP-3074 to improve transaction efficiency and EIP-7002 to optimize validator operations. The next upgrade, Fusaka, will complete scope confirmation on April 10. Every major Ethereum upgrade generates strong market anticipation before and after deployment—what will happen this time? Some analysts previously noted Ethereum’s risk-reward ratio is favorable, having underperformed relative to top-tier projects. Once new progress or shifts occur, it could quickly reverse its sluggish trend.
Summary
Potential catalysts remain this year. The likelihood of Bitcoin retesting $100K+ is still high, though uncertainties shouldn’t be overlooked. Strategic reserve implementation appears more probable, rate cut expectations remain uncertain, regulatory frameworks and related legislation seem largely on track, and Ethereum’s evolution and upgrades will likely serve as additional tailwinds. Overall, the outlook remains promising.
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