With Trump's impending return to power, can BTC突破 150,000 USD?
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With Trump's impending return to power, can BTC突破 150,000 USD?
The annual price is expected to hit $200,000, but the "Trump effect" may not yield quick results.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsArticle: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily
At the beginning of 2025, the market appears to be gradually entering a phase of price recovery amid volatility and decline.
Around 10 a.m. today, BTC price briefly surged past $99,000, currently hovering around $98,800; ETH has rebounded from approximately $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; similarly, SOL has gradually recovered from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As the date of Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. President draws nearer, market sentiment is steadily improving. This article by Odaily Planet Daily summarizes recent market views for readers’ reference.
Buying Pressure Continues: Long-Term Inflows at National, Institutional, and Corporate Levels
The price rebound naturally stems from sustained buying inflows. After the "Christmas volatility," new-year buying momentum remains strong and increasingly resilient.
Data: Bitcoin Spot ETFs Record Cumulative Net Inflows of $35.909 Billion
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of bitcoin spot ETFs reached $111.46 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to total Bitcoin market cap) of 5.72%, and cumulative net inflows amounting to $35.91 billion. For Ethereum spot ETFs, the total net asset value stood at $13.03 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio of 3%, and cumulative net inflows reaching $2.64 billion.
BTC Spot ETF Data
ETH Spot ETF Data
In addition, institutional reports express confidence in continued net inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs throughout 2025.
Steno Research: Predicts $48B and $28.5B Net Inflows for BTC and ETH ETFs in 2025; Forecasts BTC to Rise to At Least $150K
In a recently released report, Steno Research stated that its bullish forecasts for BTC and ETH prices reflect “an unprecedentedly favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic backdrop marked by declining interest rates and improved liquidity, and Bitcoin’s historically strong performance following the halving.”
It added, “Beyond this, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, further driven by substantial capital flows into U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.”
Steno projects net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion into BTC and ETH ETFs respectively in 2025. The report also forecasts that DApp TVL will surpass $300 billion by 2025, far exceeding the previous high of about $180 billion in 2021.
Earlier, Steno Research stated in another report that it expects Bitcoin's price to rise from around $94,000 to at least $150,000 in 2025, while ETH could more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. That implies the ETH/BTC exchange rate would rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 over the next 12 months—mirroring previous cycle trends—with altcoins becoming a focal point.
El Salvador Adds 5 BTC Since New Year, Holding Now Approximately 6,009 BTC
On-chain data shows El Salvador has added 5 BTC since the start of the year, bringing its total holdings to approximately 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: Will Continue Accumulating Bitcoin in 2025, Currently Holds Over 40,000 BTC
The CEO of mining firm MARA Digital said the company will continue accumulating Bitcoin on its balance sheet in 2025.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, valued at over $4 billion.
Deribit: Large-Scale BTC Option Purchase — 150 BTC Worth of $97K Calls Expiring Jan 10
Lin Chen, Head of APAC Business at Deribit, reported that today’s largest BTC block options trade was a user paying $559,000 to purchase 150 BTC worth of $97,000 call options expiring on January 10 (this Friday).
Standard Chartered: BTC Could Reach $200K in 2025; MicroStrategy to Buy More BTC
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts Bitcoin’s price will double, expecting it to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
He also anticipates that institutional investment in Bitcoin next year will maintain or exceed the pace seen in 2024. The bank noted that since the beginning of this year, institutional purchases have already reached 683,000 BTC, primarily through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and software firm MicroStrategy, which serves as an effective alternative vehicle for Bitcoin investment. Kendrick said MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin purchases in 2025 should match or exceed those in 2024. He added that pension funds should begin including Bitcoin in their portfolios via U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs starting next year, due to the incoming Trump administration’s anticipated reforms on regulations governing TradFi companies’ digital asset investments. Kendrick noted: “Even a small allocation from the $40 trillion held in U.S. retirement funds would significantly push up Bitcoin’s price. We’d be even more optimistic if Bitcoin sees faster adoption by U.S. retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWF), or potentially a U.S. strategic reserve fund.”
Besides, major listed companies continue steadily executing their “Bitcoin accumulation plans.”
Blockstream Founder: MicroStrategy May Have Already Added More BTC
Adam Back, founder of Blockstream, tweeted: “I think MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchase but must announce it to the market via an 8-K filing either before or after regular trading hours.”
Prior news indicated that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor had posted Bitcoin Tracker information for nine consecutive weeks.
Data: 11 Public Companies Have Accumulated Bitcoin in the Past Week
Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, tweeted: “According to data compiled by HODL15Capital, 11 public companies have bought more Bitcoin since last Monday. In 2025, many more companies are expected to join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has written the playbook for a movement.”
Metaplanet Plans to Increase Bitcoin Holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025
As a Japanese publicly traded company that has benefited from its Bitcoin treasury strategy, Metaplanet will continue its buying activity.
The company’s CEO, Simon Gerovich, recently stated that its goal this year is to increase Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC using what he called “its most value-accretive capital markets tools,” aiming to promote Bitcoin adoption in Japan and globally, and “expand Metaplanet’s influence within Japan and the broader Bitcoin ecosystem.”
Gerovich said: “We’re not just building a company—we’re driving a movement.”
In contrast to persistent buying pressure, selling pressure has notably eased entering 2025.
Selling Pressure Eases: Exchange Inflows and Miner Outflows Both Decline
Historically viewed as reliable indicators of sell-side pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows have both seen significant declines recently.
BTC Exchange Inflows and Miner Outflows Have Sharply Declined Since November 2024, Indicating Reduced Selling Pressure
Since November 2024, Bitcoin exchange inflows (total BTC transferred to exchanges) and miner outflows (BTC sent by miners to exchanges) have sharply declined, signaling reduced selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, BTC exchange inflows peaked at 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, following roughly two months of highly active exchange inflow activity. In December 2024, exchange inflows decreased but remained substantial, with daily volumes ranging between 11,000 and 79,000 BTC.
The decline in exchange inflows coincided with falling miner outflows, indicating reduced selling pressure from Bitcoin miners who often liquidate BTC holdings to cover operational costs. Miner outflows have been decreasing since miners realized profits during the historic price surge following Trump’s election victory in November last year.
CryptoQuant data shows that outflows peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges amid a BTC price of around $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges; 5,748 BTC on January 2; and only 2,133 BTC on January 3.
Macro vs. Micro Predictions: Cautious Optimism Meets High Conviction
Regarding macro-level market forecasts and individual micro-level perspectives, cautious optimism coexists with extreme bullishness. Some traders advocate “taking profits timely and securing gains on pullbacks.”
Greeks.live: European and U.S. Users Gradually Returning From Holidays, Market Activity Rises
On January 3, Adam from Greeks.live Research Institute tweeted: “20,000 BTC options expired, Put/Call Ratio at 0.69, maximum pain point at $97,000, notional value $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options expired, Put/Call Ratio at 0.81, maximum pain point at $3,400, notional value $710 million. Today marks the first weekly option expiry of 2025, totaling $2.6 billion in options expiry. European and U.S. users are gradually returning from holidays, and overall market热度 (heat/activity) is rising. However, this week’s theme remains adjustment, with clear market fragmentation and no sustained hotspots emerging yet.
Towards the end of this month, Trump will officially assume office as the new U.S. President, fueling very optimistic expectations for 2025 across the market. However, recent notable corrections in U.S. equities have introduced greater uncertainty. This month’s FOMC meeting is extremely likely to maintain rates unchanged, leaving no additional short-term catalysts for the market.”
U.S. Investment Bank View: BTC Market Cap to Reach One-Quarter of Gold’s by Year-End, Price Breaks $220K
U.S. investment bank HC Wainwright forecasts Bitcoin’s price to reach $225,000 by the end of 2025, implying a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion—approximately 25% of gold’s market cap.
Finance Professor: Supportive U.S. Regulation Could Push BTC to $200K
Carol Alexander, Professor of Finance at the University of Sussex, believes a $200,000 Bitcoin is possible. She said: “I am more optimistic than ever about 2025,” adding that Bitcoin’s price “could easily reach $200,000, though there’s no indication volatility will decrease.” Alexander clarified she personally owns no Bitcoin. “By next summer, I expect it to trade around $150,000 ± $50,000.” Supportive U.S. regulation will boost Bitcoin, yet ongoing lack of clarity in regulating crypto exchanges will continue to drive volatility, as leveraged trading causes sharp price swings.
Notably, Carol Alexander has a solid track record in Bitcoin price forecasting—she predicted last year that Bitcoin would hit $100,000 in 2024, which indeed came true.
Mining Industry Professional: BTC May Hit $180K–$190K Peak in 2025, With Occasional Sharp Pullbacks
Youwei Yang, Chief Economist at cryptocurrency mining firm BIT Mining (BTCM), predicts Bitcoin’s price in 2025 could range between $180,000 and $190,000, though he remains cautious, warning of potential pullbacks.
He noted: “Bitcoin may experience significant upward momentum in 2025 along with occasional sharp corrections. During moments of market shock—such as a major stock market crash—Bitcoin could temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain upward. Based on these dynamics, we forecast Bitcoin may peak at $180,000–$190,000 in 2025, consistent with historical cycle patterns and growing mainstream institutional investment in crypto.”
Ledn CIO: Expects BTC to Challenge $160K by End of 2025 or Early 2026
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at crypto lending firm Ledn, said Bitcoin might retrace to $89,000 before rebounding to $125,000 by the end of Q1.
Glover said from there, Bitcoin may pull back again to $100,000 before challenging $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026—a more conservative outlook compared to VanEck and Bitwise, which project $180,000 and $200,000 respectively.
Analyst: Bitcoin Likely to Trade Range-Bound, Could Climb to $105K in January
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin could climb to $105,000 in January. They stated: “We anticipate Bitcoin will maintain a range-bound market pattern as investors seek to deploy capital across various asset classes. We forecast Bitcoin to fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000 by the end of January.”
January 20—the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump—may serve as a key catalyst for crypto prices. Market expectations include friendlier crypto regulatory policies and improved U.S. economic governance under the new administration. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump’s inauguration may not immediately trigger a crypto price rally. “We expect the new U.S. administration to bring greater clarity to crypto policy, but we don’t view the inauguration itself as a significant price-up event. Rather, it will lay the foundation for a smoother path forward for crypto in the U.S.”
Placeholder Partner: BTC, ETH, SOL All Look Strong Across Timeframes
Chris Burniske, partner at Placeholder, tweeted: “Regardless of timeframe, BTC, ETH, and SOL all look strong—they’ll soon go up again.”
He added that, as in prior cycles, meme coins over the past few weeks have once again served as a good indicator of increased risk appetite.
1confirmation Founder: Nations Likely to Adopt MicroStrategy-Like Strategy to Accumulate Bitcoin
Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, tweeted that nations may soon rush to adopt strategies similar to MicroStrategy’s:
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Issue government bonds of varying maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.)
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Use proceeds to purchase cryptocurrencies
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Repay loans according to loan terms
He added that the question is no longer whether countries will do this, but rather which cryptocurrencies they will buy—likely starting with BTC, then moving to ETH, with any sufficiently decentralized currency eligible to participate. He emphasized that the government bond market is much larger than the stock market.
Bearish Views and Profit-Taking: Mature Perspectives from Leading Research Firms and Traders
Compared to the bullish sentiment toward BTC, views on ETH and altcoins remain relatively rational. Below are some representative opinions.
10x Research: Expects ETH to Underperform BTC Again in 2025; Skeptical of Pectra Upgrade
Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, stated in a recent market report: “While we can’t rule out new catalysts emerging, we wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to achieve meaningful recovery in 2025. While we recognize Ethereum’s volatility, we still consider it a poor mid-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC again in 2025. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid.’”
Thielen said one of the most important metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend in active validators. However, he pointed out that Ethereum’s one-month validator growth rate has turned negative, declining about 1% over the past 30 days, raising concerns about increasing risks of validators exiting the network. He described rising unstaking activity as “logical,” noting Ethereum lacks “real demand” beyond staking.
He also criticized the March 2024 Ethereum Duncan upgrade—which reduced gas fees and increased transaction throughput—as having come “six months too late,” missing the peak of the meme coin boom and causing the market to shift toward more cost-effective alternatives like Solana. He remains skeptical of the upcoming Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025: “Of the previous 19 upgrades, only two had clearly positive impacts on ETH’s price—and both occurred during Bitcoin bull markets.” He added: “The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 largely failed and brought little value overall.”
Senior Trader: Trump’s Inauguration Could Be Key Catalyst for Renewed Bull Momentum
Senior crypto trader The Crypto Dog recently said the crypto market may not see major moves until President-elect Trump’s inauguration on January 20. He speculated this political event could become the key trigger for renewed bullish momentum. He believes Bitcoin and altcoins may remain stagnant ahead of the ceremony, mirroring market behavior in previous election cycles. His analysis suggests that historically, Bitcoin tends to rise after a new U.S. president takes office. In 2021, shortly after President Biden’s inauguration, Bitcoin rose over 100%. Similarly, in 2017, Bitcoin saw major breakthroughs around the time of the inauguration.
Despite these observations, he acknowledged his prediction could be invalidated if traditional markets—especially the S&P 500—continue to rise. He emphasized that since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin has shown strong correlation with traditional markets, suggesting sustained equity strength could create a more optimistic outlook for crypto in January.
Notably, with about two weeks left until Trump’s inauguration, market data shows broad gains among Trump-related tokens.
Analysis: Number of Addresses Holding Over 1 BTC Drops by 18,530 in Past Two Months
On-chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data showing: “Over the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530.”
Odaily Planet Daily suggests this may indicate more retail investors exiting the market, leading to further concentration in BTC ownership.
Trader Eugene: Bull Market in Second Half—Better Strategy Is Frequent Profit-Taking
Prominent trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio tweeted: “As we enter the latter half of this market cycle, the better strategy is to sell more frequently, rather than holding long-term.”
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