Magic Eden is about to launch, and the market has already priced in 40U?
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Magic Eden is about to launch, and the market has already priced in 40U?
Players standing from three different perspectives have written three entirely different scripts.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Cookie
At 10 PM Beijing time tonight, Magic Eden's token $ME will go live with its airdrop distribution. Currently, driven by the news of Binance listing, $ME is already trading above $6 in pre-market on OKX, giving it a circulating market cap exceeding $750 million.
The pre-market price generally reflects where $ME might open once officially listed on centralized exchanges (CEX). However, opinions diverge significantly on how $ME’s price will perform in the hours or days following the launch, with three distinct narratives emerging from different investor perspectives.
Perspective 1 - Solana’s Second-Largest NFT Marketplace (Benchmarked Against $TNSR)
This comparison has largely lost credibility now, as the current circulating market cap of $ME already exceeds the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $TNSR—and is roughly seven times the circulating market cap of $TNSR.
Why was $TNSR ever considered a benchmark? Those making this comparison are likely focused primarily on the Solana NFT space. Indeed, in Solana NFTs, Magic Eden has ceded the top marketplace position to Tensor.
However, looking at user numbers and transaction revenue, Tensor hasn’t established a decisive lead over Magic Eden. Over the past 30 days, their transaction revenues differ by only $15,000—essentially neck-and-neck. Over the past year, Magic Eden actually leads Tensor by $3.6 million in transaction revenue.
Perspective 2 - Bitcoin’s Leading DEX
This view is primarily held by participants deeply embedded in the Bitcoin ecosystem. While Bitcoin’s ecosystem may seem underwhelming at first glance—home to just one NFT project, Bitcoin Puppets, among the top 10 by market cap, and barely scraping into 10th place—Bitcoin NFTs were arguably the most active NFT ecosystem before the recent ETH NFT revival.
Magic Eden holds a dominant position here. Of Magic Eden’s 1.5 million users over the past year, only 26% came from the Bitcoin network. Yet these users generated over $40 million in revenue for Magic Eden—69% of its total income over the past year.
Magic Eden earned $60 million in revenue over the past year, and this doesn't even include its other dominant business on Bitcoin: Rune tokens.
The Runes protocol, launched shortly after Bitcoin’s April halving, is a new fungible token (FT) standard on Bitcoin. Magic Eden charges a 1% buyer fee on Rune trades. The top 10 Rune tokens traded on Magic Eden have collectively seen around $600 million in volume. In just about six months, these top 10 Runes alone brought Magic Eden $6 million in fees.
From the Bitcoin-native perspective, Magic Eden is a giant within the ecosystem—one with strong growth potential. For these believers, expectations for $ME rarely fall below $6.
Perspective 3 - The Next Hyperliquid
This is the most bullish take: “In a bull market, FDV is just a meme—only circulating market cap matters.”
$ME has an even smaller initial floating supply than $HYPE ($ME starts with just 12.5% circulating, i.e., 125 million tokens), and its token distribution is well-structured. Like $HYPE, it’s a highly profitable project with clear growth momentum. Based on these three factors, the most optimistic investors believe $ME could follow $HYPE’s path and reach $40.
Magic Eden’s profitability in the NFT space is unmatched. On Bitcoin, it effectively functions as a DEX. Excluding Rune revenue, Magic Eden’s annual revenue over the past year was already 20 times that of Blur—a platform whose current circulating market cap is around $760 million. In their respective domains, both $ME and $HYPE have risen to leadership through profitability and market sentiment.
But there’s a key difference: $HYPE operated in relative isolation, building momentum organically without listing on any Tier 1 CEX. In contrast, $ME is confirmed for Binance and likely to land on Coinbase and Upbit soon. This fundamentally different environment makes it difficult to expect $ME to replicate $HYPE’s trajectory of relentless upward pressure based purely on low float.
Conclusion
The views above reflect observed market sentiment and are not intended as investment advice. Ultimately, everyone is simply seeking justification for their decision to hold or sell. Whether a narrative proves right often only becomes clear in hindsight—through a foggy lens of imperfect foresight.
We hope this analysis helps you formulate a $ME strategy aligned with your own outlook and risk profile.
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