When Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000? Here's What Experts and Smart Money Are Saying
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When Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000? Here's What Experts and Smart Money Are Saying
Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is not a yes/no question, but a matter of time.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsSource: The Block
Compilation: BitpushNews Mary Liu
Since Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election on November 5, Bitcoin's price has hit new all-time highs over the past week. According to market data, Bitcoin surpassed its previous record high of $73,730 on election night and is now trading between $88,000 and $89,000, briefly reaching a daily peak of $90,036.17 at the time of writing.
With bullish sentiment around Trump’s victory, expectations that sovereign nations may follow the U.S. in establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves, and looser interest rate policies, how long can this post-election Bitcoin rally last?
"Don't fight the trend," Bernstein analysts told clients in a report. "Welcome to the crypto bull market—buy everything you can."
Bernstein and Standard Chartered expect Bitcoin’s price target to reach $200,000 by the end of next year. But first, how soon will BTC break $100,000?
Polymarket users have placed bets on whether this milestone will be achieved before the end of 2024, with total trading volume exceeding $3 million today and an implied probability of 59%.
"Reaching $100,000 isn’t a question of if but when," Michael Cahill, CEO of Douro Labs, told The Block. "In my view, it could happen as early as Q1 2025. Given the current macro environment favorable to digital assets, we’re seeing unprecedented momentum."
Fear or No Fear?
According to Cahill, the post-election rebound isn't purely FOMO-driven, nor is the current price movement merely retail speculation like in 2017.
"The market has finally recognized Bitcoin as a legitimate asset and a tool to hedge against inflationary pressures," he said. "Today, we're witnessing a structural shift in how investors perceive Bitcoin. A six-figure price floor is being established, and this rally could solidify Bitcoin’s role as a cornerstone of the global financial system."
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, said BTC has been waiting for the next catalyst since breaking above $74,000, adding that it could "easily" reach $100,000 by year-end.
"Everyone is watching for new Bitcoin buyers—it’s very real," Hougan said. "But another reason behind this rally is that people have stopped selling. Long-term holders are no longer willing to sell Bitcoin at current prices, and short-sellers seem unwilling to stand in front of this speeding train."
Chandra Duggirala, CEO of Tides.Network, said Bitcoin could easily reach $100,000 before Thanksgiving, though there are near-term risks.
"We haven't seen strong FOMO from wealth managers yet, and retail investors are only just beginning to pay attention," Duggirala said in an email. "So this trend is still in its infancy. We believe real FOMO will kick in once $100,000 is breached."
Zaheer Ebtikar, founder and CIO of Split Capital, echoed this view.
"Historically, people were forced into accepting the idea that Bitcoin rallies truly begin after breaking all-time highs, so I think it becomes self-fulfilling," Ebtikar told The Block. "But more importantly... many smarter funds and crypto natives are positioning themselves ahead of future capital inflows into the space."
He noted that such capital allocation through professional asset managers won’t happen immediately. Therefore, most FOMO may not materialize until December 1 at the earliest, with January 1, 2025 appearing more realistic.
"I think we're in a very unusual window where agile capital capable of moving quickly is entering the market, ahead of broader systematic buying," Ebtikar said.
What Do Smart Money Think?
Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, said Bitcoin could "undoubtedly" reach $100,000 by year-end.
"BTC’s implied volatility is at 55," Blume said. "It’s a bit high, but I expect it to go even higher before hitting the market peak. This, along with the recent revival of the lending market, tells me there’s still room to run."
According to CF Benchmarks, traders appear to be snapping up Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price. The 30-day constant maturity 25-delta skew has now crossed the 5 vol threshold (note: 5 vol is an empirical level; when skew exceeds this, it typically signals strong bullish sentiment), approaching its year-to-date high, indicating surging demand for upside exposure.
Moreover, Thomas Erdösi, Product Lead at CF Benchmarks, stated in a release that far-out-of-the-money call options—such as 5D options with strike prices over $100,000—are showing significantly higher implied volatility, suggesting traders are preparing for further breakthroughs into six-digit territory.
Wintermute data shows rising open interest in call options expiring on December 27 with a $100,000 strike price, potentially reaching a notional value of $850 billion.
Contracts expiring March 28 next quarter show increased demand for strikes between $100,000 and $120,000. The ETH/BTC spot exchange rate rose 11% over the past week—the third-largest gain this year.
"As has been pointed out throughout 2024, this spread gets played every single time," said Jake Ostrovskis, OTC trader at Wintermute. "The prevailing narrative is 'this time is different,' which is a dangerous stance. The market has already softened somewhat from Friday’s highs."
Geoffrey Kendrick, analyst at Standard Chartered, said the $90,000 level was "easily achievable" by November 29, with $100,000 expected by December 27 and $125,000 by year-end. He highlighted December 10 as a key date to watch, when Microsoft’s board will vote on whether to invest in BTC.
"...after the 2016 election, many of Trump’s trades peaked around his January 20 inauguration," Kendrick wrote in an email to clients on November 10. "So if BTC doesn’t hit $125,000 by December 31, I believe it will do so before January 20."
Matt Klein, portfolio strategist at Nascent, told The Block: "$100,000 by latest before the inauguration. The only question is whether the Lummis bill is taken seriously—if it becomes law, the upside is unlimited."
Earlier this year, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo) introduced a bill requiring the U.S. Treasury to purchase 1 million Bitcoins over five years to counter dollar depreciation. She also proposed a stablecoin bill in April.
With anti-crypto figures like Senator Sherrod Brown losing their seats in the election, the U.S. Congress is set to become the most crypto-friendly in history. Combined with Trump’s economic policies likely weakening the dollar, Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin will "fly even higher."
"As Bitcoin’s freely circulating supply shrinks, the largest amount of fiat currency in history will chase a safe haven—not just Americans, but global investors including those from China, Japan, and Western Europe will pour money into Bitcoin... That’s why Bitcoin is heading to $1 million, because prices are marginally determined. Buy and hold."
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