Behind the Bold Bet of $30 Million on Trump, a French Trader Takes Polling into His Own Hands
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Behind the Bold Bet of $30 Million on Trump, a French Trader Takes Polling into His Own Hands
Théo dared to place such a bet not merely by guessing Trump would win, but because he personally got involved.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: TechFlow
After the conclusion of the U.S. election, aside from Trump and Musk, another major winner is Théo (a pseudonym), a Frenchman.
Prior to the election, Théo placed bets on the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket using four anonymous accounts, with total wagers exceeding $30 million, positioning him to earn nearly $50 million.
Théo describes himself as a wealthy French national who previously worked as a trader at several banks and began applying his mathematical expertise to analyze U.S. opinion polls starting this past summer.
This trader not only predicted that Trump would win the presidency, but also bet on Trump securing the popular vote and multiple key swing states—including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states traditionally leaning Democratic.
Théo’s bold betting strategy wasn’t based merely on guessing Trump’s victory. He took direct action by commissioning polling agencies to conduct surveys using the “neighbor method,” obtaining real public opinion data.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Théo’s betting strategy was primarily driven by skepticism toward the accuracy of mainstream U.S. opinion polls. He argues:
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Mainstream polls significantly underestimate Trump's support;
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There exists a “shy Trump voter effect,” where some Trump supporters are reluctant to disclose their preference in surveys;
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Traditional polling methods are biased, especially those conducted by mainstream media outlets, which tend to favor the Democratic Party;
To address these issues, Théo proposed the use of the "neighbor poll method"—asking respondents whom they expect their neighbors to vote for. He believes this approach more accurately reflects voters' true intentions, as people may indirectly reveal their own preferences when speculating about their neighbors’ choices.
Théo cited several neighbor-method polls conducted in September 2023. These showed that when asked about their neighbors’ likely voting behavior, Democratic candidate Kamala Harris received several percentage points lower support compared to when respondents were directly asked about their own preferences. Théo interprets this as confirmation that traditional polls once again underestimated Trump's support.
Théo also revealed that he commissioned a major polling firm to conduct a survey measuring the “neighbor effect,” the results of which were “stunning—and favorable to Trump.”
Théo insists his bets on Trump were purely profit-driven, with absolutely no political motivation.
In addition, Théo has repeatedly criticized American opinion polling, particularly polls conducted by mainstream media. In his view, these outlets have a Democratic bias and often produce anomalous poll results favoring Harris.
Théo recommends that U.S. polling organizations adopt the neighbor method in future surveys to avoid repeating embarrassing forecasting errors.
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