30 Million Bet on Trump's Victory: The Mysterious Whale Says: Just for Profit
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30 Million Bet on Trump's Victory: The Mysterious Whale Says: Just for Profit
He is not driven by politics, but by a single decisive move to determine the outcome.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: This article describes the case of a French trader who calls himself Théo, placing bets on prediction market Polymarket for Trump to win the election. He has wagered over $30 million, expecting Trump to win by a significant margin. Théo insists he has no political motives—only financial gain—but due to the sheer size of his position, he is essentially unable to exit these bets and faces enormous risk.
Below is the original content (slightly edited for clarity and readability):
The Man Who Bet Over $30 Million on Trump Says: "I Don't Want to Manipulate the U.S. Election"
The mysterious individual who placed more than $30 million betting on Donald Trump’s victory wants the public to know: he has no intention of manipulating the U.S. election. "My goal is simply to make money," said the man, who identifies himself as "Théo," during a Zoom interview earlier this week with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal. He described himself as French, formerly living in the United States, and previously working as a trader at several banks.
Théo’s massive bets on Polymarket have drawn widespread attention, especially since the prediction market is not accessible to Americans. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts on the platform had systematically purchased contracts predicting a Trump victory, driving up the odds of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data showed that funds flowing into these accounts originated from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking speculation about the identity and motivations of the so-called "Trump whale."
Last week, New York-based Polymarket said it had contacted the "Trump whale" and launched an internal investigation. The company stated that the bettor is a French finance professional with extensive trading experience.
Former President Trump's shadow falls across an American flag at a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Trump’s Shadow on the American Flag: The 'Whale' in the Shadows
In a statement, Polymarket said: "Based on our investigation, we understand that this individual took a directional position based on their personal view of the election." The details provided by Polymarket align with Théo’s self-description, and he confirmed having communicated with members of Polymarket’s legal and compliance team.
As election watchers scrutinize every data point in what is considered the most unpredictable and tightly contested U.S. presidential race in history, prediction markets—platforms that allow users to bet on potential outcomes—have emerged as one tool for forecasting results. Historical research suggests that in the days leading up to past elections, the candidate with the highest probability in prediction markets typically went on to win the White House.
Yet the rise of the "Trump whale" highlights a key limitation of current prediction markets: despite a surge in trading volume on Polymarket this year, the overall market remains relatively small and vulnerable to price manipulation by a single well-funded, determined investor placing multimillion-dollar bets.
Théo: The Anonymous Whale’s Mysterious Gamble
After an article about his bets was published on October 18, Théo reached out via email to The Wall Street Journal. To verify that he was indeed the "Trump whale" on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to place a small bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce a pregnancy in 2024—one of many non-political micro-markets on the platform. Minutes later, Polymarket’s website showed that an account named "Theo4" had placed such a bet.
Dressed in a gray Nike sweater during the Zoom call, with neatly trimmed facial hair and a slight accent, Théo explained that he made his decision after analyzing polling data and concluding that Trump’s support was being underestimated. He denied allegations that his bets were intended to create artificial momentum for Trump.
Théo declined to reveal his real name, and The Wall Street Journal could not independently verify all aspects of his story. While he claims to be using his own funds, there is no way to confirm this, nor can connections to political organizations or Trump allies be ruled out.
"I absolutely have no political agenda," Théo wrote in an initial email.
He said he wishes to remain anonymous because his friends and children are unaware of his wealth, and he does not want them to know about his high-stakes bet on Trump. Describing himself as a seasoned financial investor, he said he is comfortable risking tens of millions of dollars on trades where he has high conviction—but emphasized that political betting is new territory for him.
Earlier this year, Théo began closely following U.S. polling data and noticed that Trump’s support was underestimated in both 2016 and 2020. He believes that if Trump once again exceeds expectations, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also referenced the "shy Trump supporter effect"—the idea that some voters are reluctant to tell pollsters they back Trump.
"I know many Americans who will vote for Trump but won’t tell you," he said dismissively when asked about pollsters’ attempts to correct for errors seen in 2016 and 2020. "I haven’t seen any meaningful changes."
Théo, the Mega-Bettor on Trump: Confidence Mixed With Anxiety
Over two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to the Journal reporter, criticizing mainstream media polls he believes are biased toward Harris. During the Zoom call, he argued that Democratic-leaning media outlets are fueling narratives of a close race to prepare the ground for social unrest, while he expects a decisive Trump victory.
Théo said he was surprised by the level of attention his trades attracted. He began placing modest bets in August under the username Fredi9999, purchasing millions of dollars’ worth of Trump-win contracts. At the time, Trump and Harris were nearly evenly matched on Polymarket.
To avoid causing sharp price swings, Théo spread his purchases over multiple days. Nevertheless, as his buying increased, he noticed other traders pulling their offers whenever Fredi9999 appeared, making it difficult to execute trades at favorable prices. In response, he created three additional accounts in September and October to obscure his activity.
If Trump wins—and wins decisively, as Théo anticipates—he stands to earn more than $80 million, doubling his investment. His primary bet is on Trump winning the Electoral College, but he has also placed millions on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. Additionally, he has placed bets on Trump winning key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose nearly all of his $30 million—most of his liquid assets.
Because his position on Polymarket is so large, he cannot exit without significantly moving the market. According to Polymarket Analytics, the four "Trump whale" accounts collectively hold about 25% of all contracts on Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% of those on Trump winning the popular vote.
Théo admits he feels nervous. While he remains highly confident in a Trump victory—estimating the odds between 80% and 90%—he worries that last-minute news events could derail his bets.
"Something unexpected could happen at any moment," Théo said.
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