US election adds unexpected variables—crypto market plunges overnight?
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US election adds unexpected variables—crypto market plunges overnight?
Market行情 often experience significant volatility around the U.S. election day.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On October 30, Bitcoin failed to reach a new all-time high. After climbing above $73,600—just $100 short of $73,777—it faced fading momentum. Following repeated periods of volatile consolidation, BTC began a downward slide. By the evening of October 31, the decline accelerated, briefly dropping to around $68,800 before recovering slightly to hover near $69,500.
Ethereum (ETH) also saw a sharp pullback after rising above $2,700, falling as low as $2,500 and erasing previous gains. The broader altcoin market experienced widespread declines.
In terms of derivatives data, over $276 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for $247 million of that total.
Why did Bitcoin fail to break its historical high? And what might come next?
Harris Gains Ground in Key Swing States Ahead of U.S. Election, Adding Uncertainty
The U.S. presidential election will officially take place on November 5, a period historically associated with significant market volatility.
Looking back at Bitcoin’s performance during the 2020 U.S. election: crypto prices declined two days prior; rose on the day the results were announced; fell again over the following two days; and then entered a sustained upward trend.
According to a recent Forbes report, a new poll shows Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump by a narrow margin of just 1%. In seven critical swing states that could determine the election outcome, Harris holds a 49% to 48% edge over Trump. Just one week earlier, Trump had led Harris 50% to 46% in those same states.
This shift has increased uncertainty around the election result. U.S. equities opened lower and extended their losses, with tech stocks, chipmakers, and AI-related stocks collectively tumbling.
However, according to Polymarket data, Trump currently has a significantly higher probability of winning compared to Harris.
Some investors, adopting a cautious stance, have exited positions and are waiting on the sidelines until the election outcome becomes clear.
Outlook for Future Price Movements
Bitcoin has delivered strong fourth-quarter returns following its halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, with gains of 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02% respectively. Notably, November 2016 saw a return of 5.42%, while November 2020 posted a 42.95% gain—suggesting this month could also bring positive returns.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin achieved a 7.35% gain in September 2024—the best September performance in its history. Historically, every time Bitcoin has closed September in positive territory, it has continued to rise through year-end.
Changpeng Zhao Hints at Bull Run in 2025
While attending Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said he cannot predict the future but can analyze historical patterns. He noted that Bitcoin has followed a clear four-year cycle: 2013 and 2017 were bull markets. However, many overlook that 2012 was actually a "recovery year," as was 2016—followed by the 2017 surge—and similarly, 2020 was a recovery year preceding the 2021 bull run.
Based on this analysis, 2024 appears to be another "recovery year." What comes next in 2025 remains uncertain, but CZ expressed strong long-term optimism for the industry.
Standard Chartered Analyst: Trump Victory Could Push Bitcoin to $125,000 by Year-End
Geoff Kendrick, Head of Global Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, stated that Bitcoin may experience a price correction ahead of the U.S. presidential election on November 5, with heightened volatility expected in the coming days. As traders close profitable positions ahead of the election, the likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing its previous high above $73,700 before the vote has diminished.
Kendrick added that if the Republican Party (Trump) secures a decisive victory in Congress, Bitcoin could see even greater volatility—potentially driving the price to $125,000 by year-end and triggering a new wave of altcoin rallies.
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