Uptober achieved? Market sentiment remains conservative ahead of the election
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Uptober achieved? Market sentiment remains conservative ahead of the election
Trump's chances of winning decrease.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy BitpushNews
The U.S. Department of Labor released its latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on Thursday, showing the core PCE price index rose 2.7% year-on-year in September, above the expected 2.6%. The overall PCE price index increased 2.1% year-on-year, the lowest level since early 2021, slightly exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Following the data release, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note (TNX) briefly surged to 4.33%, while financial markets declined.
At closing, all three major U.S. indices fell sharply: the S&P 500 dropped 1.86%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.90%, and the Nasdaq Composite plunged 2.76%.
According to Beiwei data, Bitcoin broke below the 72,000 USD support level during midday trading, then fell further below 70,000 USD. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at 70,452 USD, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours.
Altcoins broadly declined: SOL dropped below 170 USD, BNB fell below 580 USD, both posting more than 3% losses over the past 24 hours. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market currently stands at $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at 59%.
Although the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets still generally expect 25 basis point rate cuts at each of the final two FOMC meetings in 2024, investors remain cautious ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
Trump's Odds Drop
Data from Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction platform, shows Donald Trump’s probability of winning has decreased from 67% two days ago to 63%, while Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’ odds have risen from 33% to 36%.
In parallel, shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) plunged 34% over the past three days, after surging 352% last month.
Brian Rudick, Head of Research at cryptocurrency trading firm GSR, noted: "Since Trump began accepting digital assets in May, the correlation between his electoral chances and Bitcoin’s price has been only 25–35%." However, he added that this correlation could increase as Election Day approaches.
Has Uptober Been Confirmed?
Looking at October's overall performance, Bitcoin briefly crashed to a low of 58,855 USD on October 10, but subsequently entered a rebound phase, rising close to its all-time highs. Its 30-day gain currently stands at approximately 16.08%. According to market analyst Nagato, a monthly close below 71,400 USD would signify a “failed” Uptober.
He wrote on X: "Bitcoin still has some time before the monthly close, which could become one of the most significant monthly closes in Bitcoin’s history. 71,400 USD is the floor. Closing above that level would further validate Uptober."
TradingView analyst TradingShot pointed out that with the month nearing its end, unless BTC drops by another 7,000 USD within the next few hours, it will close the month in the green. He said: "This would mark the second consecutive green monthly candle since March."
Analysts noted: "A seven-month consolidation period like this is not unusual for Bitcoin, as accumulation phases with multiple non-green monthly candles are common during bull markets."
TradingShot emphasized: "So far in this current bull run, we've already seen three such phases—including March 2024—and each time the market posted back-to-back green monthly candles, a strong rally followed. The 2019–2021 bull market saw three instances of consecutive green monthly candles accompanied by a clear accumulation phase, while the 2015–2018 cycle had countless ones. As clearly shown in the long-term chart above, two consecutive green monthly candles have consistently served as a strong buy signal."
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