2,000 Smart Wallet Data Analysis Reveals Traits of Ethereum Meme Winners: Diamond Hands or PvP
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2,000 Smart Wallet Data Analysis Reveals Traits of Ethereum Meme Winners: Diamond Hands or PvP
Characteristics of top-tier traders: super diamond hands, 40%-45% win rate, and a risk-reward ratio above 1:5.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Nanzhi, Odaily Planet Daily
Recently, the Ethereum meme wave has returned, and on-chain Gas activity has also seen a recovery. On the other hand, compared to other chains, the meme market atmosphere and participants on Ethereum are widely perceived as more "diamond-handed." But who are the real winners—true diamond hands or PvP experts? What are their data characteristics?
In this article, Odaily Planet Daily analyzes the top 100 profitable addresses of twenty meme tokens—including BURGER with millions in market cap, DOGE with tens of millions, and Nerio and MOG with hundreds of millions—providing multidimensional insights into their behavior.
Data Sources and Processing Notes
The wallet data used in this article comes from GMGN. Unmodified base data includes 7-day profit, 30-day profit, 30-day win rate, and wallet balance. Custom metrics include:
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Total Profit: Since many addresses on GMGN show inaccuracies in total profit, we use the value derived from “top 10 profitable tokens minus top 10 loss-making tokens” as a proxy for total profit. If fewer than ten tokens exist, we calculate based on available numbers.
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TOP Profit: We excluded tokens marked by GMGN as “insufficient liquidity” but showing large gains, which often indicate fraudulent tokens with manipulated market caps. Then we separately calculated profits from the top 1, 3, and 5 profitable tokens (and similarly for losses).
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Average Profit per Buy/Sell: 30-day total profit ÷ number of buys/sells within 30 days.
We also manually removed duplicate addresses, addresses that acquired significant tokens via transfers (which may distort profit calculations), and MEV bot addresses. The final dataset contains 1,581 addresses.
Wallet Data Analysis
How Many Diamond Hands Are There?
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The total profit across the 1,581 analyzed addresses is $208 million, averaging $131,900 per address;
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The top profitable token for these addresses generated $190 million in profit, averaging $120,700 per address;
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The worst-performing token resulted in cumulative losses of $30.9 million, averaging $19,500 in losses per address.
Clearly, these "smart money" addresses perform well in terms of profit-to-loss ratio. With a 600% profit/loss ratio, only a 14% win rate is needed to break even.
Furthermore, Odaily segmented the addresses by total profit and added analysis for TOP 3 and TOP 5 profit/loss positions, as shown in the chart below:
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Addresses with higher total profits exhibit higher profit-to-loss ratios—i.e., greater "diamond hand" tendencies;
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The TOP 1 profit-to-loss ratio is higher than TOP 3 or TOP 5, suggesting that these smart money addresses typically achieve large gains through single-token bets.
How Frequently Do Diamond Hands Trade?
We further filtered out addresses with less than 0.1 ETH in wallet balance or no transactions in the past 30 days. The remaining addresses averaged 337 trades over 30 days, broken down by profit tiers as shown below:
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Surprisingly, the most profitable addresses trade far more frequently than others, possibly indicating they actively seek opportunities;
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These top addresses also have significantly higher average profit per trade. Upon review, this was largely due to a few addresses purchasing several high-value positions in Nerio before its Binance listing, inflating their per-trade averages;
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Addresses with over $100,000 in profit show a notably lower “average profit per sell ÷ average profit per buy” ratio, suggesting they tend to buy infrequently and sell in batches.
Interpreting Win Rate and Profitability
Likewise, we analyzed average win rate, 7-day profit, and 30-day profit across different profit tiers, as shown in the table below:
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Unlike Solana, Ethereum’s profitable addresses do not exhibit particularly high win rates across any tier. Combined with earlier findings, this suggests that maintaining a moderate win rate while maximizing profit-to-loss ratio should be the primary focus.
(For Solana smart money analysis, see "Inside 1,000 Solana 'Smart Wallets': Who's Making Big Gains and What Can We Learn?")
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Addresses earning over $200,000 show nearly identical 7-day and 30-day profits, primarily due to recent large gains from Nerio. This implies that addresses in the $50k–$200k range may actually demonstrate stronger consistent profitability and warrant attention for readers favoring sustainable strategies.
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Negative-profit addresses often show low win rates and sustained losses, potentially serving as a contrarian indicator.
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