VanEck Analyst: Harris Becoming President Could Be More Favorable for Bitcoin
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VanEck Analyst: Harris Becoming President Could Be More Favorable for Bitcoin
Trump supports cryptocurrency, while Harris has taken a relatively cautious stance on the issue, which could have different implications for the crypto industry.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: Jason Shubnell
Translation: Baicai Blockchain
Analysis from VanEck’s Matthew Sigel and Nathan Frankovitz suggests the outcome of the November election could have a dual impact on the cryptocurrency industry.
Donald Trump has been actively supportive of the sector this year, while Kamala Harris has taken a more cautious stance on the topic.
There's been much speculation about how the crypto industry might influence the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Republican candidate Donald Trump has even dubbed himself the "crypto president," consistently backing the industry throughout his campaign. Democratic nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris, by contrast, has maintained a relatively conservative posture since officially entering the race.
When it comes to which election outcome is better for the crypto industry, VanEck presents a more nuanced case.
"We believe that while both Harris and Trump appear favorable toward Bitcoin, each would have subtler implications for the broader digital asset market," wrote Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital asset research, and Nathan Frankovitz, digital asset investment analyst. "Both administrations could maintain fiscal spending—or even accelerate it—potentially leading to further quantitative easing, especially if paired with worsening anti-business policies."
VanEck outlines a scenario in which Harris retains SEC Chair Gary Gensler, whereas Trump has stated he would seek to remove Gensler and align his financial policies with Senator Elizabeth Warren’s wing of the party—a faction favoring stricter regulatory environments that could hinder institutional adoption of digital assets.
Anthony Scaramucci, former White House communications director under Trump’s first administration and founder of SkyBridge Capital, said earlier this week that he’s working with a group of crypto advocates to engage with Harris’s campaign, aiming to steer Democrats away from Gensler and Warren.
"However, when it comes to Bitcoin specifically, we believe a Harris presidency could be more beneficial for Bitcoin—even more so than a second Trump term—as it may accelerate many of the structural issues that originally drove Bitcoin adoption," VanEck stated. "In such a scenario, Bitcoin’s unique regulatory clarity could give it a competitive edge over other digital assets."
Nonetheless, according to VanEck’s latest analysis, the broader cryptocurrency industry would benefit more under a second Trump presidency. "We believe a Trump presidency would generally be positive for the entire crypto ecosystem, likely bringing greater deregulation and pro-business policies—particularly beneficial for crypto entrepreneurs who have faced increasing scrutiny from regulators over the past four years," VanEck wrote.
Other analysts, however, believe only one candidate is bullish for Bitcoin. Bernstein’s team forecasts that if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 by year-end. In contrast, they predict that a Harris victory would see Bitcoin prices fall and test the $30,000 to $40,000 range.
"Regardless of the election outcome, rising fiscal deficits and growing national debt are likely to persist," VanEck noted. "This points to a weakening U.S. dollar—an environment in which Bitcoin has historically thrived."
According to The Block’s BTC price page, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $63,110 at time of publication.
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