September market tension hits, performance heavily reliant on data
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September market tension hits, performance heavily reliant on data
Key economic data from the United States are being released one after another.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy: BitPush
Crypto markets continued their downward trend on Tuesday.
According to BitPush data, Bitcoin reached an intraday high of $59,840 early Tuesday morning but retreated after midday trading to the $57,500 support level before recovering slightly. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $57,901, down 2% over the past 24 hours.
Ethereum fell 3% to $2,456, its lowest level since early February. Most altcoins were in the red, with only around 20 out of the top 200 tokens posting gains.
Flux (FLUX) rose 18.6%, followed by UMA (UMA) and Sui (SUI), up 6.9% and 5.7% respectively. LayerZero (ZRO) saw the largest drop, falling 9.3%, while DOGS (DOGS) declined 8.4% and Pendle (PENDLE) dropped 7%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.04 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at 56.4%.
U.S. stocks and gold also posted losses. At close, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite fell 2.12%, 1.51%, and 3.26% respectively.
Historically, financial markets tend to underperform in September. Traders are now awaiting the Federal Reserve's first rate cut, several key economic data points that may influence the pace of easing, and the countdown to the November U.S. presidential election.
Key U.S. Economic Data Released
Latest U.S. economic data has reignited recession concerns. The ISM Manufacturing PMI report for August, released Tuesday morning, showed the U.S. economy continued to contract, coming in at 47.2—below both the expected 47.5 and July’s 46.8. New orders dropped from 47.4 in July to 44.6, while prices paid rose from 52.9 to 54.0.
According to CME FedWatch data, due to the weak figures, traders have increased the odds of a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in September from 30% a day earlier to 39%. However, a 25-basis-point cut remains the most likely scenario, with a probability of 61%.
The most important macroeconomic release—potentially the deciding factor between a 25 or 50 basis point cut—is Friday’s August employment report. Economists forecast nonfarm payrolls will rebound from July’s 114,000 to 160,000. The unemployment rate is expected to dip from 4.3% to 4.2%.
"Markets seem extremely sensitive to any data right now. We’ve become a very data-dependent market," said Chief Technical Strategist Larry Tentarelli.
BTC Follows Structural Pattern of Past Cycles
TradingView analyst TradingShot noted, "Bitcoin has been closely following the structural pattern of previous cycles," analyzing what he calls "similar sequences to cyclical fractals."
"BTC has followed the precise path we mapped out and achieved expectations by breaking above the 1W MA100 (green trendline in the chart above). Since price has essentially been range-bound over the past six months (bull flag/downtrend channel), it’s time to revisit this chart to see what comes next," TradingShot said.
The analyst explained: "With some adjustments, we can see that after successfully defending the 1W MA50 during the early August test, price should—relative to the past two cycles—begin a new parabolic rally (green arc in the chart above). We are 147 weeks (1,029 days) from the previous cycle peak and 21 weeks (147 days) from the halving. In prior cycles, this was exactly when Bitcoin began its major upward move (marked as 'we are here' in the chart). In every case, the 1W MA50 held firm, so the current market objective is to maintain that level so buyers don’t lose this psychological support. If this level holds, surpassing $100,000 should be the minimum expectation—especially ahead of a potential start to the rate-cutting cycle this month and the November U.S. election, which traditionally sees bullish momentum post-election."
Regarding near-term outlook, market analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that historically, September has consistently been a negative-return month for Bitcoin.
Rekt Capital warned: "If Bitcoin experiences the historically typical 7% decline in September this year... that would mean BTC could fall back toward $55,000 again."
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