Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech coming up, BTC remains stagnant
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Fed meeting minutes and Powell's speech coming up, BTC remains stagnant
Market sentiment is "sensitive and fragile."
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsBy Mary Liu, TechFlow
U.S. stocks rose on Monday as the crypto market struggled to gain momentum, with traders awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, where he is expected to provide clues about the pace of potential rate cuts.
According to Bitpush News data, BTC dipped to a low of $57,818 early Monday before recovering above $59,000. Bulls are still struggling to overcome the $60,000 resistance level. At press time, BTC was trading at $59,127, down 0.6% over 24 hours.
Altcoins were mixed, with most tokens following Bitcoin lower.
Among the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap, Sui (SUI) led gains with a 7.2% rise, followed by Wormhole (W) up 6.3% and Aave (AAVE) up 6.1%. Popcat (POPCAT) led losses, falling 8.3%, while Gravity (G) dropped 6.3% and SATS (1000SATS) declined 6%.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization currently stands at $2.09 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market dominance at 55.8%.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite closed higher on Monday, gaining 0.97%, 0.58%, and 1.39%, respectively.
Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders now price in a 78% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the September meeting, a 59% chance of a 50-basis-point cut by November, and a 42% chance of a 75-basis-point cut by December. Ahead of Powell’s speech, traders will closely analyze the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Market Sentiment "Sensitive and Fragile"
Analysts at Hyblock Capital said in a report: "The global economy is in a delicate balance, oscillating between signs of recession and recovery. This uncertainty has led to what many call a 'soft landing.' The Fear & Greed Index, a key barometer of market sentiment, swings weekly between fear and greed, highlighting the fragile state of the market."
They noted: "In this environment, markets have become increasingly reactive to any news—be it minor economic indicators or shifts in geopolitical developments. This heightened sensitivity leads to pronounced volatility; even small changes in data such as retail sales or housing figures, or political outcomes like Trump’s potential re-election, can trigger significant market reactions."
They added: "One example is the recent overreaction to the status of yen carry trades, where most market participants suddenly anticipated emergency rate cuts."
Besides macroeconomic conditions, certain Bitcoin-specific metrics also show bearish signals. For instance, spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows indicate waning institutional interest. According to Farside Investors, these products saw outflows totaling $372 million over the two weeks ending August 16.
Volatility Expected to Continue
Hyblock Capital analysts warned that last week’s compressed volatility could foreshadow further turbulence.
They stated: "Last week’s market volatility was notably compressed, with the weekly high-low range around 10%. Historically, such compression often precedes major breakouts. The last similar period of compression led to subsequent two-week volatility expansions of 22% and 27%."
They emphasized: "Beyond the likelihood of increased volatility, both the Binance Volatility Index (BVOL) and Deribit Volatility Index (DVOL), which measure 30-day implied volatility, showed upward trends over the weekend—the first time in quite a while."
They pointed out that open interest has been steadily rising since early last week: "This typically indicates growing potential for liquidations and stop-loss triggers, further increasing the odds of volatility. A key level to watch is the $57,290–$57,340 range, where traders may get trapped. If prices return to this zone, it could become a psychological battleground, with underwater shorts exiting as they reach breakeven."
The analysts concluded: "Despite these short-term uncertainties, the overall outlook remains positive. Global central banks continue their easing policies, and bond markets show no clear signs of a credit crisis."
TradingView analyst Arman Shaban echoed Hyblock Capital’s bullish view, saying that as long as Bitcoin bulls maintain support above $58,700, BTC should challenge higher resistance levels.
Shaban said: "Looking at the Bitcoin chart on a weekly timeframe, we can see price currently hovering around $59,500."
The analyst added: "The critical level to monitor is whether Bitcoin can hold above $58,700. In my view, a rebound toward $63,400 could happen soon. However, once that level is reached, we might see a brief pullback. Observing how the market reacts afterward will give us better insight into Bitcoin’s next potential move."
Secure Digital Markets analysts noted: "Bitcoin remains constrained by its 20-day and 50-day moving averages—a trend that has persisted since the recent market downturn. Each time price approaches these resistance levels, sellers step in and push it lower. A decisive breakout and close above $60,000 would be a key signal of renewed strength. Furthermore, sustained moves above $63,000 could restore the market’s bullish trajectory."
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