Coinbase Q3 2024 Crypto Outlook: Upward Trend Clear, Crypto Correlations Decline
TechFlow Selected TechFlow Selected
Coinbase Q3 2024 Crypto Outlook: Upward Trend Clear, Crypto Correlations Decline
The report shows significant gains for both Bitcoin and Ethereum, with limited market pullback, declining correlations among crypto assets, new demand driven by spot ETFs and stablecoins, while FTX cash distributions could drive inflows.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: Crypto, Distilled
Translated by: Baicai Blockchain
Coinbase has just released its Q3 2024 Cryptocurrency Outlook. This comprehensive report spans 60 pages—@DistilledCrypto read it all and summarized the 10 key takeaways you need to know.
1. MVRV and Market Trends
When MVRV is above its 365-day average, it indicates a strong upward market trend.
Pullbacks that occur with MVRV support are typically buying opportunities.
Currently, MVRV has rebounded from its support level, suggesting the uptrend remains intact.
2. Bitcoin ROI from Cycle Lows
Bitcoin has completed four market cycles, each consisting of bull and bear phases.
In this cycle, Bitcoin has risen approximately 400% since the November 2022 low.
This cycle resembles the 2018–2022 period, when Bitcoin surged 2000% from its bottom.
3. Smaller Pullbacks
Bitcoin bull markets typically feature exponential growth accompanied by sharp corrections.
This cycle is different, showing smaller pullbacks: eight between 5%-20%, two between 20%-30%, and none exceeding 30%.
4. Declining Crypto Correlations
In Q2, correlations among crypto assets declined: Ethereum at 0.7, some altcoins below 0.5.
This decoupling suggests deeper market understanding of token fundamentals.
With increasing regulatory clarity and institutional adoption, correlations are expected to decline further.
5. Volatility: Perception vs Reality
Perception: To many investors, digital assets are too volatile.
Reality: Cryptocurrency market volatility is comparable to that of large-cap mainstream tech stocks.
6. Impact of Spot ETFs
Spot ETFs have brought significant new demand for Bitcoin, while new Bitcoin supply remains limited to miner rewards.
Since spot ETFs began trading, ETF demand has far exceeded new Bitcoin issuance.
7. Ethereum Market Cycles
Ethereum has completed two full market cycles.
This current cycle began in 2022, and since November 2022, Ethereum has gained over 240%.
This mirrors the 2018–2022 cycle, during which Ethereum rose 6000% from its low.
8. Ethereum Total Value Locked (TVL)
TVL tracks the value of altcoins and stablecoins locked in smart contracts and decentralized applications (dApps), reflecting financial activity and liquidity.
In Q2, TVL grew by 9%, indicating increased activity on the Ethereum blockchain.
9. FTX Cash Distributions
FTX will be making cash distributions; if recipients reinvest, it could trigger significant inflows into cryptocurrencies.
Key dates: August 16 (trustee vote) and October 7 (court approval deadline).
10. Stablecoins
Stablecoin market cap stands at $162.5 billion, up $2 billion in two weeks, surpassing pre-3AC levels.
As a proxy for crypto liquidity, stablecoins are a key indicator for long-term price forecasts.
Given ongoing capital inflows, it's difficult to justify a bearish market outlook.
Finally, thanks to @CoinbaseInsto and @glassnode for the insights! This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Join TechFlow official community to stay tuned
Telegram:https://t.me/TechFlowDaily
X (Twitter):https://x.com/TechFlowPost
X (Twitter) EN:https://x.com/BlockFlow_News
@DistilledCrypto
