Opinion: The altcoin bull market is coming—now is the time to buy the dip
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Opinion: The altcoin bull market is coming—now is the time to buy the dip
The first phase of a bull market is mainly dominated by BTC, while the second phase is when altcoins catch up with price surges.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: CryptoAmsterdam
Translation: TechFlow
Is an altcoin bull market approaching? This article outlines my views from the following two perspectives.
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Bull markets have different phases, and I believe the altcoin bull market has not yet begun.
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Why I think many people will miss it, and how I am positioning myself.
Cycles
All assets exhibit similar cyclical structures across any timeframe. Focus particularly on the weekly cycle, which represents the high-timeframe bull market we typically refer to.
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Bull Market
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Bear Market
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Consolidation Phase
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Doubt Phase
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(1) Bull Market
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Phases 4 and 5 are where parabolic rallies occur.
The cycle structure applies to BTC, and you can observe market structure within each phase of the cycle.
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Bull Market = Higher highs / higher lows
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Bear Market = Lower highs / lower lows
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Consolidation = Equal highs / equal lows
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Doubt Phase = Initial higher high (micro/trend breakout)
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Bull Market = Higher highs / higher lows
Although you can already identify trends, market structure, and cycle phases, adding a range makes it clearer.
Phase 4 is the initial breakout above the range high, signaling a trend shift, while Phase 5 is where the bull market enters its parabolic rise.
Range Low Regain
To identify Phase 4, you can use the "range low regain" setup—capturing price bouncing from a downtrend and re-entering a prior trading range. After price breaks below the range (Phase 3), reclaiming above the range low (Phase 4) often leads to another test of the range high (Phase 5). We aim to enter as close as possible to the range low.
Combining cycle structure, market structure, and the range reclamation setup gives you a blueprint:
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Understand where we are in the cycle
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Identify your entry, invalidation, and target levels
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Clarify the current situation and expectations
As you can see, BTC has already reached the range high after regaining the range low.
This pattern allowed us to enter during the doubt phase after BTC reclaimed the range low in 2023.
What if I told you that, in my view, altcoins are now in a position very similar to BTC’s?
In the first stage of a bull market, Bitcoin dominates; in the second stage, altcoins catch up. High BTC prices attract attention, and profit-taking and greed later drive investors toward altcoins. This shift always happens after BTC reaches new highs.
Reasons why altcoins may soon begin or are about to experience a significant rally:
Historically, when BTC surges significantly and hits new highs, it marks the peak of its dominance. While BTC may climb even higher, the fact is that it has been in an uptrend throughout this cycle, indicating that altcoins have not yet entered their bull phase.
ETH/BTC is approaching its range low, entering Phase 4—the reversal zone. In the previous cycle, ETH/BTC traded within the doubt phase. Imagine what this cycle could look like if it enters Phase 5: the parabolic surge phase. A reversal here signals rising altcoin strength, which would spread across the broader market.
ETH/USD
When ETHBTC rebounds, I expect ETH/USD to reclaim the mid-range and form a false breakout of the mid-range.
Trigger: Reclaiming the mid-range and breaking the market structure and trendline on lower timeframes.
ETH ETF
Excited about next week's ETH ETF decision—expecting a delay, but who knows? Regardless, I believe the market has already priced it in. A potentially bearish outcome may have already been anticipated and absorbed by market participants as we enter this macro reversal zone, which is extremely exciting. Are memes being sold off in anticipation of a trend shift?
Anyway, back to the altcoin cycle thesis.
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The crypto cycle is past its midpoint;
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Stage one is primarily dominated by Bitcoin, with a few standout individual coins;
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Stage two sees altcoins catching up;
The altcoin market will reduce PvP (player vs. player) competition.
So, how will I trade it, and why do I believe most people will once again be left behind?
It's crucial to understand that if you're betting on an altcoin bull market based on the above reasoning (range low regain, crypto and AI bull cycle structure, etc.), you're essentially betting on the occurrence of a specific trading setup/structure.
If we simplify this, it's the high-timeframe range low regain.
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Trigger: Range low regain
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Target 1: Range high area
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Target 2 (based on cycle structure): Ultimately surpass the range high
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Invalidation: Price closes back below the range low (indicating bearish market structure)
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Entry: As close as possible to the range low
This structure appears across all timeframes and should be traded the same way regardless of duration. This is where the difficulty lies.
Imagine this setup occurs on a 1-minute chart—price re-enters the range, you enter. Then, over the next 15 minutes (15 candles), it pulls back to the range low. This is completely normal and does not invalidate the setup.
Everyone can hold through it, and most might psychologically prepare to add to their position as price approaches the range low.
This is exactly how you should manage such setups. The problem is, this isn't a 1-minute chart—it's a weekly chart.
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Larger drawdowns
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Longer duration
The issues are:
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People lack patience;
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They want action;
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Longer durations may lead to poor execution;
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Inability to endure drawdowns;
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Attempting small trades within this larger setup;
Overall, the altcoin market cap chart is not an asset you can buy, but it forms the basis of my argument for the coming altcoin bull cycle—and the setup/trade I'm currently managing.
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Buy altcoins when they retest the range low
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Sell altcoins at or above the range high
How am I trading it?
I’ve been buying the dips. My first buy was based on the retest of this 0.25 level. In bull markets (after deviation and regain of the range low), the 0.25 level often acts as a springboard into Phase 5 upward momentum.
But it could also fail and drop further. The 0.25 setup could be invalidated, but remember: I’m trading the original macro range low regain setup, which remains highly active. We might just be retesting the range low, presenting a great opportunity.
Take FET as an example.
This could be painful, meaning the overall market might pull back another 30% (or more), with increased volatility and time drag—but again: this does not invalidate our primary setup.
Range low: my second buying dip zone.
BTC failed to flip the 0.25 level in 2021 and retested the range low. (Much like the historical COVID-era pullback.)
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