Crypto Market Outlook for May: Token Positioning and Market Observations Under Narrative & Catalyst
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Crypto Market Outlook for May: Token Positioning and Market Observations Under Narrative & Catalyst
Events create expectations, expectations generate market attention, and market attention drives price increases.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsWritten by: SleepingRain
Hello everyone, here’s the May outlook — sorry for the wait.
Given the uncertain market conditions earlier (although I thought it was near the bottom, I wanted to observe a few more days), I didn’t publish anything on May 1st.
Now, here’s the update. Enjoy~
This piece outlines tokens I’m personally planning to position based on Narrative & Catalysts. And remember: Hype is hype — don’t fall in love with projects.
Overall, I don’t think we need to FOMO into positions right away. It’s okay to wait for a pullback, or build a small base position now and scale in gradually.
1/ AI
AI is one of the hottest narratives being discussed lately, primarily because it has several clear catalysts:
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May 22: NVIDIA Earnings;
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June 10: Apple WWDC 2024, expected to feature additional AI-related announcements;
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ChatGPT-5 potentially launching this summer, along with a GPT-powered search engine;
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May 14: Google I/O Conference
At its core, this is about attention. Events create expectations, expectations drive market interest, and market interest fuels price increases.
There are many AI projects in crypto — selecting the right tokens requires strategy. Generally, I prefer tokens that have gained market recognition and are listed on major CEXs. For example, $FET and $TAO.
$TAO has a large market cap, but also a high staking rate, meaning low circulating supply.
$FET is currently preparing to merge with $OCEAN and $AGIX. On May 3, Fetch.ai minted an additional 1,477,549,566 tokens in preparation for the upcoming conversion.
Between $TAO and $FET, I’ve chosen $FET. That said, $TAO is also solid — I just have limited capital, so I had to make trade-offs.
If you’re interested in compute-focused projects, consider $RNDR and $AKT.
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Another sector I like is AI agents, particularly $OLAS. However, $OLAS is part of my long-term portfolio, so I’m holding. Once I generate profits elsewhere, I’ll add to this position.
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Another AI agent play is $PRIME. I previously exited fully at $24–26. The main catalyst for $PRIME likely won’t come until late this year or 2025, so there’s no rush to re-enter.
Beyond these, smaller opportunities exist too — for example, UpRock on Jupiter’s second Launchpad.
Also worth noting are interaction-based point farming projects, though I personally see limited profit potential here due to overcrowding.
Of course, there are many AI projects out there, and I may have missed some. A simple guiding principle: Is the market willing to pay attention to this AI project?
2/ MEME
As for memes, I won’t dive deep into on-chain meme hunting — it’s like searching for gold in shit. I’ll likely stick to $WIF and $PEPE (though I don’t deny that coins like $BOME, $BONK, and $FLOKI are also strong speculative plays).
$PEPE is a long-term hold for me, while I trade $WIF in cycles — buying or adding during BTC pullbacks when sentiment is weak, then selling as optimism returns. This strategy only works in a bull market. I believe both $WIF and $PEPE have the potential to reach $SHIB-level status in this cycle.
3/ Solana
Take a look at Pima’s analysis. To add: $JUP isn’t just building a DEX anymore — it’s aiming to become the front-end interface for the entire Solana ecosystem. Here’s what Jupiter is working on:
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DEX Aggregation: Launched Metropolis Part 1 and a new T0 API enabling users to query and swap directly on markets with the deepest liquidity;
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Perpetual DEX;
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Launchpad;
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Acquired Ultimate Wallet and its mobile team, advancing the Jupiter Mobile initiative;
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Jito Bundles (tip-based MEV protection);
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Liquid Staking Token jupSOL;
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Meme initiatives: WEN, which is expanding into NFTs and SOL staking;
The Jupiter team has big ambitions, which is why I believe $JUP is the biggest beta on Solana — and $WEN is the beta on $JUP.
$JTO derives value from LSD and MEV — as Pima noted, if the Solana ecosystem thrives, Jito benefits.
Also worth watching: Sanctum, the second project on Jupiter’s Launchpad. Deposit SOL to earn points — feel free to use my referral link: https://sanc.tm/w?ref=8VZMS1.
$PYTH is set to unlock $1.19B worth of tokens, so I’m not bullish. As for $TSNR and $W, I’m passing. Neither has strong upcoming catalysts, and both carry heavy overhangs from previous holders.
Again — focus and simplify.
There’s plenty more happening on Solana — DePIN (io.net), cross-chain bridges for BTC assets (BRC20, RUNES) like $ZEUS, RWA, etc. These are interesting themes, but I won’t cover them all here. If I open new positions, I’ll update on Twitter.
4/ Basechain
From my perspective — focusing on market attention — two events can drive interest: one has already happened (Friend Tech token launch), and one is coming (the official launch of Coinbase Smart Wallet).
There are only a handful of strong projects on Base.
My largest position is $DEGEN. Everything else is mostly memecoins.
I believe Basechain will be the birthplace of SocialFi. Both Friend Tech (I haven’t sold any of my airdrops — only used a small portion for LP) and Farcaster will thrive on Coinbase and Base. In community discussions, people increasingly view Degen not just as a meme, but as a Layer3.
My take: $DEGEN remains fundamentally a meme. My assessment is based on its name and origin.
5/ ETH
Still bullish on ETH. I don’t expect the ETF approval in May, but August could be possible. According to GCR, ETH ETF might arrive by late 2024 or 2025.
I’m still holding $PENDLE and didn’t sell any during the recent FUD. Macro-wise, even after EigenLayer concludes, airdrops and point systems will remain key tools for user acquisition, TVL growth, and cold-starting projects. Pendle’s core value stays intact. Plus, Pendle v3 is on the way — its central theme is “Intent.”
Buying during FUD periods might actually be smarter.
$LDO has solid fundamentals, but unfortunately, it’s not the season for value plays — hence its underwhelming performance. Personally, I see $LDO as ETH’s beta, while $PEPE is alpha.
$ETC is nearing its halving — worth watching.
Also keep an eye on $MODE.
6/ BlackRock
BlackRock’s moves in crypto are also highly attention-grabbing. Their main focuses are ETFs and RWA (plus some infrastructure). BTC ETF is already approved, and the primary RWA play is $ONDO.
Watching BlackRock’s strategy and riding their coattails could be a smart speculative move.
7/ UEFA Euro + Summer Olympics
Similar to World Cup speculation, both the European Championship and Summer Olympics present similar hype potential. Like the AI narrative, these are driven by major external events.
8/ Gaming
Lastly, a quick note on gaming: I’m optimistic, but unsure when the momentum will shift toward gaming tokens. Focus on games with strong existing player bases.
Final Thoughts
Overall, “Sell in May and go away” is a popular strategy, but I don’t expect a major downturn in May unless there’s significant negative news. I lean toward a sideways, range-bound month for BTC — essentially a consolidation phase. That said, certain altcoins tied to strong narratives may still present opportunities.
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