Bitget Research: CPI data exceeds expectations in lowering June rate cut odds, Ordinals ecosystem begins recovery
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Bitget Research: CPI data exceeds expectations in lowering June rate cut odds, Ordinals ecosystem begins recovery
In the past 24 hours, several new trending cryptocurrencies and topics have emerged in the market, which could very well represent the next wealth-building opportunities.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Bitget Research
Executive Summary
Yesterday, the U.S. released March CPI data higher than expected, further diminishing the likelihood of a June rate cut. The crypto market initially dipped but quickly rebounded strongly—Bitcoin not only recovered all losses since the CPI announcement but also surged above $70,000. This reflects a strong consensus and shared anticipation in the crypto market regarding the halving cycle.
- Wealth-generating sectors include: Ordinals ecosystem, TON ecosystem;
- User's most-searched tokens & topics: Pendle Finance, SOMO, SAGA, Uniswap
- Potential airdrop opportunities: Mezo, ZetaMarket
Data as of: April 11, 2024, 4:00 AM (UTC+0)
I. Market Environment
Yesterday, the U.S. reported March CPI at 3.5%, exceeding the expected 3.4%. Following the release, interest rate swap markets indicated a reduced probability of a Fed rate cut in June. Upon the news, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $67,500 amid broad market declines. However, after the panic selling subsided, Bitcoin recovered all losses from the CPI period and briefly reached $71,000 today.
Regarding BTC ETFs, yesterday’s data showed a net inflow of $124 million. U.S. BTC ETF investors currently hold an amount equivalent to 4.3% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. If excluding Bitcoins that haven’t moved in three years, this share rises to approximately 8.4%.
The overall crypto market has demonstrated strong resilience, rebounding robustly following two consecutive U.S. economic data releases that exceeded expectations. This highlights a solid market consensus and bullish sentiment around the Bitcoin halving, with strong conviction in the halving narrative.
II. Wealth-Generating Sectors
1) Sector Movement: Ordinals Ecosystem (ORDI, SATS)
Main Reason: With the Bitcoin halving approaching, the Ordinals ecosystem—an innovative asset protocol on Bitcoin—has delivered standout performance since 2023. The recent Hong Kong Bitcoin Ecosystem Conference brought greater visibility among Western players and institutions. As key assets within the Bitcoin ecosystem, Ordinals-based tokens are gradually gaining recognition for their value.
Price Performance: ORDI rose 11% over the past 24 hours; SATS gained 6%.
Factors Influencing Future Trends:
- Ordinals assets generally lack intrinsic token utility and are often labeled by the market as BTC MEME coins. However, as more developers and projects enter the space, fundamentally valuable projects will gradually emerge. Investors should closely monitor development trends within the Ordinals ecosystem and how individual projects are enhancing their token utilities.
- Ordinals assets are inscribed on BTC UTXOs and inherently contain a certain number of satoshis (the smallest unit of Bitcoin). Therefore, theoretically, the underlying Bitcoin value embedded in these assets means that Bitcoin’s price movements can directly influence the valuation of Ordinals assets.
2) Sector Movement: TON and TON Ecosystem (TON, FISH)
Main Reason: TON and its ecosystem have shown sustained strength recently, with TON reaching new all-time highs. The primary driver is the strong wealth-generation effect within the TON ecosystem, attracting growing attention and participation from market players. The ecosystem is currently experiencing rapid growth. With a large portion of tokens held by the foundation, limited circulating supply combined with surging demand has pushed TON’s price upward.
Price Performance: TON rose 10.5% over the past 24 hours; FISH surged 21.2%.
Factors Influencing Future Trends:
The TON ecosystem is still in its early stages, with new DeFi projects and meme coins continuously emerging. Given the proven wealth effect, users are increasingly purchasing TON to participate in various ecosystem projects, fueling rising interest. Investors should monitor TVL growth in DeFi projects and trading volume/heat of meme coins to capture ecosystem momentum.
Since a significant portion of TON tokens are held by the TON Foundation, the foundation’s token movements are critical. Investors should closely track the TON Foundation’s wallet activities.
3) Sector to Watch: Bitcoin Ecosystem (CKB, T)
Main Reason: With the Bitcoin halving imminent, the Bitcoin ecosystem has seen rapid development. CKB, recognized as a prototype of the UTXO Stack, is widely viewed as the leading technical implementation of a Bitcoin Layer 2. Recently, asset issuance protocols based on RGB++ have begun to emerge, gradually creating wealth effects. T is the threshold signature algorithm token used by the STX chain. With STX’s Nakamoto upgrade scheduled for April 15, speculative expectations may arise.
Factors Influencing Future Trends:
- Sustained capital inflows into the ecosystem: The Bitcoin ecosystem represents another major narrative alongside the halving. As the halving reduces miner revenue, there is an urgent need for a thriving ecosystem to support income diversification. However, sustainable growth depends on continuous developer engagement and funding. Investors should monitor real-time capital flows into the Bitcoin ecosystem to inform investment decisions.
- Exchange listing expectations: Numerous novel asset protocols are emerging within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Listings on major exchanges would significantly enhance liquidity and tradability, providing tangible upside support for token prices.
III. User Search Trends
1) Popular DApp
Pendle Finance (DeFi)
Pendle Finance is a yield-trading protocol allowing users to split income-generating assets into Yield Tokens (YT) and Principal Tokens (PT). By separating yield and principal, market participants can develop tailored trading strategies for different scenarios. After Ethereum’s Shanghai upgrade enabled staking yields, followed by EigenLayer enabling restaking of LSTs, and increasing RWA offerings tied to U.S. Treasuries or similar instruments, Pendle has evolved into the largest yield-trading protocol in crypto.
Pendle’s TVL has now climbed to $4.63 billion, and its native token PENDLE has steadily reached new all-time highs. With the current RWA trend gaining momentum, Pendle stands to benefit significantly. Investors are advised to closely follow Pendle’s integration of RWA assets, given its substantial market potential.
2) Twitter
SOMO (DApp): SOMO is the official Launchpad Partner of portalcoin. Its gameplay resembles Pokémon, featuring core functions such as collecting, evolving, and battling creatures, potentially appealing to millions of global players. From an investment perspective, SOMO’s fusion of mobile gaming and trading experience could attract a highly active user base, translating into significant revenue potential. The project features a points system where participation can earn airdrop rewards.
3) Google Search & Regional Trends
Global Overview:
SAGA (DApp): Saga is a Layer 1 blockchain enabling developers to build parallel, interoperable, application-specific chains called "Chainlets" using different virtual machines, offering infinite scalability for apps. Backed by strong investors including Placeholder, Maven11, Longhash, and Samsung, the project previously raised $15 million. After launch, it faced selling pressure and entered a consolidation phase with downward volatility. The token may show strong future performance—worth monitoring.
Regional Search Trends:
(1) Africa and Asia show no distinct hotspots:
Search interest in Africa and Asia remains fragmented. In Asia, keywords like DePIN, AI, and Solana appear, while African users focus more on specific projects such as PI, SAGA, and ETH, without forming clear trend-driven narratives.
(2) English-speaking and European regions show stronger focus on Uniswap:
Uniswap: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a Wells notice to Uniswap Labs, signaling its intent to sue the most popular decentralized exchange in DeFi. Uniswap founder Hayden Adams responded: "This fight will last years and may go all the way to the Supreme Court—the future of fintech and our industry hangs in the balance." Following the SEC news, UNI briefly plunged 15%, hitting a low of $9. Market volatility remains high, with token movement closely tied to regulatory developments. Continued monitoring is advised.
IV. Potential Airdrop Opportunities
Mezo (Large Funding Round, Publicized Airdrop)
Mezo is a BTC Layer 2 project focused on the Bitcoin ecosystem, enabling BTC holders to perform on-chain transfers and financial activities to drive the development of BTC DeFi. Mezo recently announced a $21 million funding round backed by top-tier firms including Pantera Capital, Hack VC, and Multicoin Capital.
The team has publicly disclosed its BTC asset staking program and introduced a referral mechanism, making a strong airdrop expectation likely. The project is currently in the early operational stage.
How to Participate:
1) Visit the project website and find the invite code in Discord;
2) Enter the invite code and connect your Unisat wallet;
3) Deposit BTC.
Zeta Markets (Solana-based DEX Project, Token Launch Imminent)
Zeta Markets is a DeFi platform offering futures and spot trading, enabling users to effectively hedge against crypto market volatility and extreme events. The project has secured $8.5 million in strategic funding led by Jump Capital.
The founder recently announced plans to launch the token in May—just one month away. Users can increase trading volume to earn platform points and maximize airdrop eligibility.
How to Participate:
(1) Connect your wallet to Zeta Markets;
(2) Deposit USDC;
(3) Engage in taker contract trades—each transaction accumulates points.
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