Coingecko: When Is the Best Time to Sell Airdropped Tokens?
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Coingecko: When Is the Best Time to Sell Airdropped Tokens?
Possibly within 14 days after receiving the airdropped tokens.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: Nicholas Boey, Coingecko
Translation: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
1. When Is the Best Time to Sell an Airdrop?
Out of the 50 largest airdrops, 23 (46%) recorded their peak token price within the two weeks prior to the airdrop date. This suggests that the optimal time to sell airdropped tokens for maximum profit may be within 14 days of receiving them.
Airdropped tokens that achieved their highest returns in the short term include Ethereum Name Service (+73% on day 2), X2Y2 (+121% on day 2), Blur (+90% on day 6), LooksRare (+192% on day 10), and ArbDoge AI (+425% on day 14).
Among recent airdrops, Jito (+43% on day 2), Wen (+37% on day 3), Dymension (+75% on day 10), Manta (+72% on day 12), and Heroes of Mavia (+217% on day 13) were also most profitable if sold shortly after distribution. However, these airdrops have only been trading for a few weeks, so it remains to be seen whether their token prices will reach new highs.
Of these 23 airdrops, 16 reached their peak returns between 2 and 14 days after the airdrop date. In other words, interest tends to surge sharply once tokens are distributed and begin trading. This confirms that airdrops are an effective marketing or growth strategy, but also indicates that as more people talk about an airdrop, interest in a specific token typically grows rapidly—and peaks soon afterward—reflected in the token's price.
The remaining seven airdrops peaked on the day of distribution, with token prices failing to recover afterward. For example, Jupiter, the Solana aggregator, began trading at around $0.66, but has since dropped 28% and remains below its initial price. This occurs when recipients rush to profit from their “free money,” leading to immediate selling pressure. As holders decide to exit their positions over time, these airdropped tokens continue to face downward pressure and hit new lows.
On the other hand, 27 of the top 50 airdrops reached peak returns more than two weeks after the airdrop date, with the timeframe ranging from 15 to 581 days. Price peaks over this longer period often align with favorable market conditions and project-specific growth, allowing airdropped tokens to achieve valuations beyond their initial levels.
2. Market Conditions Drive Airdrop Price Returns
38% of Airdropped Tokens Reached Peaks During the 2021 Bull Market
During the cryptocurrency bull market, 19 of the 50 largest airdrops reached all-time highs (ATHs) in 2021. All of these were launched either before or during 2021, indicating that broader market conditions drove higher valuations for these airdropped tokens.
Four of these 19 tokens reached their ATH more than 100 days after the airdrop: Uniswap (1,145%), 1inch (216%), Gitcoin (242%), and Bank (94%).
Compared to short-term peaks, these tokens achieved significantly higher returns at their ATH. For instance, Uniswap’s ATH return of 1,145% was ten times greater than its highest 14-day post-trade return of 106%.
This suggests that for certain airdrops, recipients might consider holding their allocations for long-term appreciation, potentially realizing much higher profits under favorable market conditions.
2022: A Good Year for NFT Airdrops, But Not for Others
In 2022, amid relatively bearish market conditions, 11 of the 50 airdropped tokens reached ATHs.
However, early in 2022, non-fungible tokens (NFTs) experienced a bull run, which helped push valuations of three of these 11 airdropped tokens—ApeCoin, LooksRare, and X2Y2—to new ATHs. In contrast, the other airdrops that reached ATHs in 2022 were launched in the same year and peaked shortly after the airdrop date. Osmosis is an exception, having launched in June 2021 but reaching its ATH in 2022.
This suggests that during bear markets, the best time to sell airdropped tokens may be shortly after distribution to maximize profits.
2023 and 2024: Return of Bullish Sentiment?
The remaining 21 of the 50 airdropped tokens reached ATHs in 2023 and 2024, coinciding with a resurgence of bullish sentiment following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.
Eight of these 21 airdropped tokens reached their ATH more than 100 days after the airdrop: Arbitrum (68%), Bonk (28,091%), Celestia (777%), Optimism (186%), Aptos (34%), WorldCoin (249%), Arkham (67%), and Maverick (38%).
Another five took between 15 and 100 days to reach their price peak, while the remaining eight reached ATH within 14 days of the airdrop. (Note: Of the eight tokens peaking within 14 days, five were recently airdropped: Manta, Jupiter, Dymension, Heroes of Mavia, and Wen.)
This indicates a shift in market sentiment in 2024, suggesting that holding airdropped tokens could become more profitable as they achieve new valuations during an anticipated bull market.
3. When to Sell an Airdrop
As of February 20, 2024, the number of days, weeks, or years required for the 50 largest airdrops to reach their historical high token prices, along with the corresponding peak price return percentages:
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