Market Valuation at $0.85, How Valuable Is the JUP Airdrop?
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Market Valuation at $0.85, How Valuable Is the JUP Airdrop?
Assuming JUP trades as high as $1, it would become the 18th largest asset among all crypto assets.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsAuthor: @mrink0, Delphi Digital
Translation: Luccy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: On January 30, Jupiter co-founder Meow updated the JUP tokenomics on his social media platform. The initial circulating supply of JUP will be 1.35 billion tokens, with 1 billion allocated for airdrops, 250 million for the launch pool, 50 million for CEX market makers, and 50 million for on-chain LP needs. Tokens are scheduled to officially go live at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on January 31. Additionally, the JUP Launch Pool parameters are set as follows: initial rate: 0.4, maximum rate: 0.7, curve: 1.6, total: 250 million tokens. Meow noted this implies roughly half of the tokens will be available within the 0.4–0.5 range, meaning early users may receive sufficient allocation depending on final demand and order volume.
Delphi Digital researcher @mrink0 has analyzed the value distribution and pricing of the JUP airdrop. BlockBeats summarizes the report below:
The JUP airdrop is about to begin.
At 10:00 AM EST on January 31, Jupiter Exchange will distribute its airdrop.
@mrink0 has promptly released a comprehensive report containing all key information regarding JUP. Here is a brief summary:
Jupiter: The Giant
Jupiter is Solana’s primary DEX aggregator. It acts as the de facto front-end for Solana DeFi, capturing over 75% of trading volume.
Today, Jupiter is a giant offering five products: swap, perpetuals, dollar-cost averaging (DCA), bridging, and limit orders. With an average weekly swap volume exceeding $3.5 billion, Jupiter has begun surpassing Uniswap.
After becoming one of the most popular protocols in crypto, Jupiter is now preparing to launch its native token JUP, backed by strong product-market fit and an emerging bull market.
Key Metrics
Speculation is swirling around the airdrop value distribution and JUP’s price. To bring clarity to this discussion, let’s dive into the key numbers:
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Maximum supply of 10 billion
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50% team, 50% community
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4 planned airdrops (possibly once each January)
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20% team allocation (1-year lock-up, 2-year vesting)
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20% strategic reserve allocation
Initial circulating supply of 1.35 billion:
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1 billion for the first airdrop
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250 million for the launch pool
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50 million loaned to CEX market makers
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50 million reserved for any urgent liquidity provision needs
@mrink0 previously worked at a CEX, running worst-case sell-pressure models before every listing to ensure adequate liquidity on the books. Any liquidity tokens trading above their cost basis are considered potential sell pressure.
JUP’s Opening Price
JUP is already trading on some pre-markets such as Aevo. On Aevo, it is currently priced at $0.67, generally ranging between $0.40 and $0.70, with a historical high of $0.85.
Using pre-market trading as a reference, here is the fundamental data sheet for JUP:
Therefore, JUP’s market cap and FDV would be as follows:
Assuming JUP trades as high as $1, its market cap would reach $1.35 billion, placing it among the top 60 tokens on CMC. Its implied FDV would reach $10 billion, ranking it as the 18th most valuable asset among all crypto assets by this metric.
For arguments regarding bullish and bearish scenarios around JUP, refer to the full report.
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