Podcast Notes | Blockworks' Outlook on the 2024 Crypto Market
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Podcast Notes | Blockworks' Outlook on the 2024 Crypto Market
Santi expects Solana to experience a wealth effect similar to the Ethereum ICO movement.
Navigating Web3 tides with focused insightsCompiled by: TechFlow
Edited by: TechFlow
In the Empire episode aired on January 2, 2024, Yano and Santi discussed predictions for the 2024 cryptocurrency market, Solana's rise, Ethereum's evolution, NFT wealth waves, and the future of DeFi.
Background
Yano (Host) – Co-founder of Blockworks
Santi (Host) – Host of Empire Podcast
Blockworks – A cryptocurrency news, information, and analytics platform
2024 Crypto Predictions: Solana, Ethereum Challenges, and the NFT Wealth Wave
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Santi predicts 2024 will be a year of rising risk appetite, falling interest rates, and increased liquidity, though he expects a relatively short cycle and expresses uncertainty about the second half of 2025. He notes that in 2024, capital will flow from money market accounts into markets—especially Solana and other blockchains—even as consumer sentiment remains cautious.
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Yano questions whether Santi’s forecast applies only to crypto or broader markets, sparking a discussion on election-year dynamics, interest rates, and market outlooks.
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Santi says Solana’s market cap will approach that of Ethereum, elaborating on his belief in Solana’s potential value and discussing the possibility of Solana overtaking Ethereum by the end of 2024. He emphasizes Solana’s growing market share relative to Ethereum.
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Santi anticipates a wealth effect on Solana similar to Ethereum’s ICO era, predicting significant floor price drops and rallies in NFTs as people invest in JPEGs due to newfound wealth.
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Yano agrees with Santi’s outlook and adds that he foresees massive airdrop waves in both the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems, with substantial capital inflows—particularly into Solana.
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Santi mentions that Jupiter will have multiple rounds of airdrops, increasing ecosystem activity and incentives.
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Yano observes that after the $JTO airdrop, Solana NFTs gained renewed wealth, indicating new capital flowing into NFT investments. He forecasts 2024 will be a pivotal year for JPEGs.
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Santi notes that when wealth or prices surge, retail chatter tends to focus heavily on NFT collections.
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Yano predicts a large influx of capital into NFTs in 2024, driven by successful crypto natives, especially following the first- and second-quarter airdrop waves.
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Santi expects one or two Solana NFT series to reach floor prices of $100,000 each. Yano agrees and specifically highlights the potential of the Mad Lads collection.
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Santi lists Mad Lads and Solana Monkey Business as potential high-value NFTs and discusses the impact airdrops could generate.
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Yano believes non-Solana NFTs like Pudgy will also thrive, but he is bearish on projects like Yuga and Bored Apes that raised large sums of capital.
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Santi predicts that penguins, driven by clear vision and real-world utility, could outperform Bored Apes in the NFT market.
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Santi forecasts that the Solana ecosystem will spawn at least ten unicorn companies across DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and AI.
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Santi is excited about the launch of Firedancer on Solana, anticipating it will address criticisms and improve chain efficiency and resilience. Yano detailed Firedancer’s significance for Solana in an article.
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Santi predicts Bitcoin will regain momentum, with the rollout of Bitcoin L2s driving increased activity in DeFi and other sectors.
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Yano points out Ordinals weren’t discussed and suggests more Bitcoin-related content in 2024. Santi agrees and highlights potential implications for Bitcoin’s security budget.
Yano and Santi’s Crypto Predictions: ETFs, Staking, AI Mania, & DeFi Shifts
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Yano asks Santi for his take on Bitcoin ETFs. Santi thinks they may launch in Q1 2024 but is unsure of their impact. Yano anticipates possible disappointment but acknowledges traditional financial institutions’ sales power for such products.
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Yano brings up staking, asking Santi for updates since their last conversation. Santi says he’s been reflecting and predicts a major vulnerability may emerge, raising questions about staking’s security and fragility.
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Yano states staking will become the hottest trend in crypto—comparable to DeFi summer—but warns of tragic consequences over the next year, including significant slashing events and liquidations tied to staking.
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Santi predicts AI tokens will reach fever pitch as more projects launch and attract massive attention, with market caps surpassing tens of billions.
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Yano shares a story about his father wanting to buy Akash Network for AI exposure because he sees Nvidia as overvalued. Yano sees this behavior as indicative of 2024 trends.
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Santi expresses skepticism about institutional participation in crypto, arguing they don’t differ significantly from retail investors.
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Yano agrees with Santi and adds that institutions in crypto often follow retail patterns. He also admits he lacks strong AI predictions.
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Yano predicts DeFi will re-emerge led by DeFi OGs, helping crypto go mainstream. He names various projects and leaders in the space.
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Santi disagrees with Yano’s DeFi outlook, showing greater interest in Solana’s potential to capture DeFi activity.
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For security reasons, Santi predicts growing attention toward languages based on Move, influencing L1 chains and EVM interoperability.
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Yano supports Santi’s view and references a shared investment in a security-focused project.
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Santi predicts the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) will succeed and discusses Ethereum’s potential beyond the EVM.
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Yano backs Santi’s prediction and talks about the challenges of building tools outside the EVM.
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Santi further predicts improvements in Ethereum developer activity and connectivity, along with growing recognition for IBC and Cosmos.
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Santi discusses Cosmos’ relevance in a cross-chain world and its potential to solve user experience challenges, emphasizing the importance of chain abstraction.
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Yano believes Cosmos has long led industry innovation and notes that others have adopted its approaches while struggling with ecosystem awareness.
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Santi acknowledges the awareness issue and highlights strong bids for certain Cosmos ecosystem tokens. He discusses $ATOM and other Cosmos components, agreeing that extensive research and learning lie ahead.
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Yano predicts Layer 2 technologies won’t solve interoperability in 2024 but may start offering native yields thanks to Blast’s success.
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Santi expects the Ethereum community narrative to shift away from “ultrasound money” toward a new framing, suggesting focus on Ethereum’s role as a primary chain and how rising activity affects other chains.
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Yano agrees, citing an article arguing Ethereum isn’t “ultrasound money,” while Santi recommends specific content sources to keep pace with rapid industry changes.
Synergy Between Banking and Crypto: Coinbase’s Evolution and Broader Market Trends
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Santi says Coinbase is transforming into a full-fledged bank and argues it has the potential to rank among the world’s top ten financial institutions, predicting a valuation exceeding $100 billion.
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He outlines Coinbase’s multifaceted growth, focusing on the ETF narrative, user onboarding, and funding non-speculative use cases, comparing its trajectory to the iPhone’s introduction.
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Yano agrees with Santi’s outlook and shares insights from major brands, viewing Coinbase’s Base as a key opportunity for regulated enterprise blockchain applications.
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Yano expresses interest in Coinbase expanding into personal and B2B banking, possibly acquiring firms like Mercury.
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Both discuss increasingly using $USDC blockchain for payments and transactions in personal and business dealings.
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Yano predicts prediction markets will have a breakout year, driven by distrust in traditional polling, new user-generated market platforms, and the election cycle.
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Santi discusses challenges facing prediction markets, including liquidity and user experience, and speculates on potentially high-volume markets.
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Yano believes the valuation gap between tokenized and non-tokenized companies will widen, forecasting a downturn for late-stage startups while token-based projects flourish. They conclude by discussing the importance of gaming predictions and broader market catalysts and risks.
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Yano anticipates a new wave of crypto-native media companies, noting the evolution from legacy outlets like CoinDesk and Cointelegraph to newer platforms like Blockworks and Decrypt. He hopes these firms integrate on-chain media.
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Santi agrees with Yano but notes that building a media company takes more than a year.
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Yano says some projects developed during the bear market will gain recognition.
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Santi identifies gaming and ETF approvals as major crypto catalysts, emphasizing gaming’s potential for retail engagement and the importance of central bank-driven liquidity inflows.
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Yano predicts social finance and music NFTs could become key catalysts, suggesting integration possibilities with platforms like Instagram.
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Santi emphasizes the ongoing relevance of meme coins and the importance of marketing and branding alongside technology.
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Yano predicts the U.S. will reclaim leadership in crypto, alternating with Asia as the center of crypto activity.
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Santi says the industry will always face challenges and battle lines, suggesting these are enduring elements.
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Yano notes that tribalism in the market persists and may worsen in the upcoming bull run.
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Santi reflects on his shifting loyalties between Ethereum and Solana and mentions evolving views and affiliations within crypto.
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Yano asks how to make specific price predictions for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other relevant cryptocurrencies.
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Santi suggests starting the price discussion by reviewing prior all-time highs of major cryptocurrencies.
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Santi predicts Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana will all surpass their previous all-time highs in 2024.
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Yano shares his own forecast—slightly different numerically but aligned in overall market trajectory—and notes that other cryptos like Avalanche ($AVAX) and Layer 2 solutions may also attract significant attention and capital inflows.
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Santi analyzes the potential market cap implications of their forecasts, reflecting on the liquidity and beta of younger ecosystems and how they might disproportionately benefit from new capital inflows.
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Santi and Yano reflect on the possibility of ETF success diverging from broader crypto market performance, focusing on a potential future where Bitcoin becomes the dominant "doomsday trade."
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