TechFlow, September 19 — Matrixport released a weekly report stating that the U.S. economy continues to show strong resilience. Narrowing credit spreads have reduced corporate refinancing costs and somewhat mitigated the impact of tariffs. Against this backdrop, companies are accelerating the adoption of artificial intelligence to improve operational efficiency, providing additional support for risk assets. Historical data shows that narrowing credit spreads often coincide with strength in both equities and Bitcoin, collectively increasing the likelihood that the current Bitcoin rally will continue.
The core risk to the current market trajectory remains inflation. Although inflation is still above target, our model forecasts it will fall below 2.0% over the next few quarters, suggesting the Fed could extend its easing cycle. This outlook contrasts with mainstream market expectations, which generally assume fiscal stimulus and deglobalization will keep inflation elevated for longer. However, given persistently declining energy prices and falling housing costs, the probability of inflation remaining above 3.0% over the long term appears low.
While the key drivers behind Bitcoin’s next market cycle have not yet become clear, new upward momentum is gradually building.
