TechFlow, on September 19, HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% on September 17, marking the first rate cut in nine months. Policymakers pointed out that slowing job growth, declining working hours, and rising unemployment among minority groups have made employment risks outweigh inflation risks. Chair Powell emphasized after the meeting that "there is no risk-free path," and that policy must balance inflation control with employment protection, indicating further rate cuts in October and December to prevent further deterioration of the labor market. However, newly appointed Governor Miller advocated for a 50-basis-point cut at once, and among 19 officials, seven still opposed additional rate cuts this year, reflecting分歧 in policy direction.
This dovish shift boosted sentiment for risk assets. On September 18, Bitcoin fluctuated around $117,000, up 0.22% from the previous day, with 24-hour trading volume increasing by 36%; options markets showed strong bullish sentiment, with open interest in call options at the $120,000 strike price reaching approximately $200 million in notional value, and the recent put/call ratio standing at only 0.68. Ethereum held above $4,500, blockchain analytics data showed a net inflow of about $25.7 million to exchanges but overall balances remained low, with long-term holders continuing to withdraw and store tokens. After the rate cut, capital began rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins: Solana rose to $244, daily trading volume on decentralized exchanges surged to $2.5 billion, BNB broke through the $1,000 mark, and total value locked on the BSC chain increased nearly 10% this week.
The market widely expects the easing cycle to continue within the year, but the Fed stressed that future actions will depend on employment and inflation data, with core inflation still above target levels. This cautious stance implies ongoing policy uncertainty, which may support continued digital asset rebounds in the short term, but if inflation rebounds or employment deteriorates sharply, it could trigger a "sell the news" scenario.
