TechFlow news, September 8 — According to Jinshi Data, over the year ending this March, U.S. job growth may have been significantly weaker than current government figures suggest, highlighting that the U.S. labor market had already entered a slowdown phase well before hiring weakened this summer.
Economists from Wells Fargo, KeyCorp, and Pantheon Macroeconomics expect Tuesday's annual benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show nearly 800,000 fewer jobs in March than currently estimated—roughly 67,000 fewer per month on average.
Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and Royal Bank of Canada say the downward revision could even approach one million. Although slightly outdated, such a significant downward adjustment would signal a considerably weaker labor market momentum last year and strengthen market expectations for a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts. A second consecutive year of major employment data revisions could also draw the ire of former President Donald Trump, who has previously criticized the accuracy of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
