TechFlow, Sept 5 - According to Jinshi Data, a research report by CICC suggests that the biggest risk facing the US economy remains "quasi-stagflation." Under the combined impact of tariffs and immigration policies, both demand and supply are suppressed in the short term, while structural inflation could emerge in the medium term.
Declining consumer confidence, weakening corporate investment sentiment, and divergences in bond market signals have already exhibited characteristics of "quasi-stagflation." On the policy front, an interest rate cut by the Fed might provide temporary relief, but it would struggle to alter structural factors.
Historical experience shows that "stagflation" is not merely a cyclical phenomenon, but rather the result of intertwined policy, structural, and market expectation dynamics. Against this backdrop, attention should be paid to potential spillover risks from the US economy and possible financial market volatility arising therefrom.
