TechFlow news, September 4: HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analyzed that recently international markets have shown a risk-averse sentiment: the U.S. dollar index has strengthened, U.S. 30-year Treasury yields continue to rise, gold prices have broken historical highs, and long-term bond yields in Europe and Japan have generally increased, while U.S. equities have slightly pulled back. Selling pressure on global long-term bonds has been triggered by bond supply concerns in Europe and the U.S. and political uncertainty in Japan; investors have therefore shifted toward assets such as gold and Bitcoin, pushing gold prices above $3,500 per ounce.
On-chain data shows a divergence in Bitcoin network activity: active addresses dropped 2.2% to 692,000, but on-chain transaction volume rose 8% to $10.3 billion, indicating declining retail participation and a rising share of large transactions. The BTC futures-to-spot ratio has fallen to its lowest level since October 2022, with spot trading volume being three times that of altcoins, and the taker buy-sell ratio reaching 1.21, indicating strong ongoing demand from large buyers in the spot market.
In derivatives, BTC's long-term realized volatility has slipped to levels near the 2023 lows, yet long-term option implied volatility remains above realized volatility, reflecting market expectations for rising volatility before year-end. ETH's realized volatility continues to climb, with capital again buying call options—the most popular being the $4,500 and $4,900 call contracts expiring August 29—while for BTC, the most actively traded options are the $122,000 call expiring August 29 and the $116,000 put expiring August 22. ETH option implied volatility skew for short-term and 30-day tenors has turned positive from negative, with open interest concentrated in the $4,900–$5,200 call range and $3,900–$4,200 put range.
Overall, the macro environment has boosted demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin. On-chain and options data indicate strong spot buying in Bitcoin and clear bullish sentiment among institutions, although retail enthusiasm has waned, and the market remains in a phase of consolidation and fluctuation.
