TechFlow news, September 3 — According to Jinshi Data, Commerzbank foreign exchange analyst Antje Praefcke noted that in Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, he emphasized the downside risks facing the economy and employment—balancing market, U.S. government, and FOMC colleagues' rate cut expectations against potential inflation risks from tariffs. Currently, labor market data is receiving far more attention than usual, and its impact weight will significantly increase. This naturally implies that if labor market data falls short of expectations, it could substantially boost market expectations for Fed rate cuts, potentially reviving speculation of one or multiple 50-basis-point cuts. In such a scenario, I expect the dollar would suffer another heavy blow. Tomorrow's ADP report, if below consensus (market expectation: 80,000), could lay the groundwork for this bearish sentiment toward the dollar—although the index ultimately has limited predictive power for Friday’s nonfarm payroll data.
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