TechFlow, September 3 — QCP released a bulletin stating that market focus in September has shifted from rate cuts themselves to the issue of Federal Reserve independence. Analysis shows that markets are pricing in higher term premiums at the long end while lowering the threshold for a dollar downturn. In this context, even with accommodative policies, yield curves tend to steepen and the dollar weakens, while gold and Bitcoin gain support as investors seek hedges against inflation and governance risks. Following the Jackson Hole symposium, September rate cuts remain possible, although inflation may not quickly return to the 2% target. Markets expect two rate cuts this year, but new tariffs could lift inflation expectations, warranting attention.
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