TechFlow news, September 2 — The Kobeissi Letter analyst warned that although the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in 15 days and markets anticipate a total of 50 basis points in rate cuts by 2025 (with a 90% probability), the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds has unusually risen to 5%, returning to dangerous levels last seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
This paradoxical phenomenon—rising interest rates amid rate-cut expectations—is extremely rare. Markets should normally see yields fall when rate cuts are anticipated, not rise.
This abnormal trend may indicate serious market concerns about long-term inflation or the U.S. fiscal situation, and could trigger ripple effects across mortgages, corporate financing, and the real estate market. Analysts urge investors to closely monitor this signal, as history shows that when market behavior contradicts policy expectations, it often signals deeper economic problems taking shape.
