TechFlow, August 20 — According to Jinshi Data, Kevin Thozet, a member of the Capital Economics Investment Committee, said in a report that short-term U.S. interest rates face upside risks. He noted that markets are overly confident about the Federal Reserve's rate cut prospects. Money markets have already priced in at least two rate cuts this year, reflecting expectations that signs of further slowdown in the U.S. economy and inflation will emerge. "Given the resilience of the U.S. economy, policy uncertainty, and persistent inflationary pressures, we believe these expectations are too high," Thozet stated. He added that the movement of long-term U.S. bond yields appears more balanced. The current 10-year Treasury yield at 4.300% is expected to fluctuate within a range of approximately 50 basis points around its current level.
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