TechFlow, August 12 — According to Jinshi Data, most analysts expect U.S. core CPI to rise 0.3% month-on-month in July, while Jefferies Group forecasts 0.246%, which appears somewhat unusual. Jefferies stated that prices for furniture, apparel, and entertainment goods are not expected to continue rising in July; despite tariff pressures, used car prices have remained largely stable, although seasonal adjustments may reflect a slight decline. At the same time, Jefferies expects overall CPI to increase 0.172% month-on-month, below the market consensus of 0.2%. Although this figure appears only slightly different given rounding, Jefferies believes the CPI report carries downside risks. Airfares remain a volatile factor—seasonal adjustments could still lead to a 2.5% increase in airfare prices if basic economy fares remain unchanged. If this does not occur, overall CPI growth in July could fall to 0.1% month-on-month.
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