TechFlow, August 4 — According to Jinshi Data, Barclays now believes the European Central Bank may opt to cut interest rates once in December rather than in September as previously expected. Mariano Sina, an economist at the bank, said this revision takes into account weaker economic activity in the second half of the year, caused by ongoing trade policy headwinds and the earlier import surge in the United States. Barclays expects that by December, signals regarding trade headwinds will be clearer and concerns over supply chain disruptions affecting inflation will diminish. Additionally, confidence that fiscal plans for 2026 will not reignite inflationary pressures may strengthen, supporting a 25-basis-point rate cut. Barclays forecasts that the ECB's terminal deposit rate will settle at 1.75% by 2026.
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