TechFlow, July 31 — According to Jinshi Data, a research report from Huatai Securities stated that Powell's speech failed to provide guidance on a rate cut in September, leaning toward a hawkish tone. On fundamentals, Powell emphasized that the labor market remains solid but acknowledged downside risks. Regarding rate guidance, Powell did not offer clear direction on a September rate cut, stressing that rate-cut decisions depend on incoming data. Looking ahead, whether the Fed cuts rates in September will mainly hinge on economic data from July and August. The view that the Fed could still cut rates twice between September and December is maintained. However, if employment and inflation data exceed expectations, market expectations for rate cuts this year may further retreat. Market participants should closely watch the upcoming non-farm payrolls data to be released this Friday (August 1).
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