TechFlow news, July 29 — According to Jinshi Data, Guotai Haitong published a research report stating that dismissing Powell is a high-difficulty, low-return, and high-risk move, making it unlikely. Trump is more likely to exert influence by announcing a successor early. Given the significant internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, Trump's ability to reshape the Fed may be relatively limited. Trump's pressure on Powell reflects the spread of "fiscal anxiety." The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" confirms that the U.S. is deepening its reliance on procyclical deficits, at the cost of high debt issuance expenses and declining acceptance of long-term bonds. Pressuring the Fed is a damaging tactic to alleviate fiscal anxiety—effective in the short term but with severe side effects. Once investors anticipate threats to the independence and transparency of monetary policy, the likelihood of a simultaneous plunge in stocks, bonds, and the currency ("triple shock") will rise significantly.
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