TechFlow, July 25 — Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan posted on social media stating that the four-year crypto cycle has "ended," and the future will bring "sustained steady prosperity."
The forces behind the previous four-year cycle are weakening:
i) The halving every four years;
ii) Interest rate cycles are now favorable for cryptocurrencies, rather than detrimental as in 2018 and 2022;
iii) Explosion risks have decreased due to improved regulation and institutionalization of the space;
Meanwhile, larger forces are operating on timelines not synchronized with the four-year cycle:
i) Asset inflows into ETFs represent a 5–10 year trend. This trend began in 2024;
ii) Broader institutional adoption is just beginning (ETFs are still being approved on national brokerage platforms, pensions and endowments are only now considering cryptocurrencies, etc.);
iii) The regulatory process officially kicks off in January 2025 and will continue over several years;
iv) Wall Street has only just started building positions in crypto and will deploy billions of dollars over the coming quarters and years. This begins with the passage of the "Genius Act" this month.
Hougan believes that long-term bullish forces for crypto will outweigh the classic "four-year cycle" dynamics, making 2026 a strong year—more like "sustained steady prosperity" than a supercycle.
