TechFlow news, on July 24, Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that Bitcoin briefly surged to $121,800 yesterday before pulling back to trade sideways around $118,000. On-chain data shows the average profit margin across all market-held coins has risen to about 57%. While still below historical highs, upward momentum in the short term is constrained. On one hand, short-term profitable positions continue to exert selling pressure; on the other, the current structure hasn't cleared enough room for a major bullish wave.
Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, with the market awaiting signals of fresh capital rebalancing. Meanwhile, sudden political developments in Japan have drawn widespread market attention. The ruling coalition led by Shigeru Ishiba suffered its worst defeat since 1955 in the upper house election. Although he insists on staying in office, his political capital has been severely eroded. The Japanese yen rebounded briefly against the U.S. dollar before quickly retreating, currently fluctuating within the 145–150 range. Ishiba's weakened position will undermine Japan’s negotiating leverage in upcoming tariff talks with the U.S. on August 1. With political uncertainty unresolved, the Bank of Japan is expected to remain on hold in the near term, lacking grounds for rate hikes. A weaker yen and pressured equities are contributing to an overall decline in risk appetite.
In global trade, the EU and the U.S. reached a tariff coordination agreement early today, avoiding the previously scheduled July 25 tariff increases, temporarily easing tensions in transatlantic supply chains. This positive development boosted European and U.S. stock markets, but the broader view holds that it's insufficient to reverse the prevailing trend of global macro uncertainty. CME Bitcoin futures open interest remains elevated, options market implied volatility stays at medium-high levels, and stablecoin net inflows have slowed, indicating institutional capital continues to stay on the sidelines.
Overall, for BTC to launch a new major uptrend, two catalysts are still needed: first, further liquidation of short-term profit-taking positions; second, greater clarity on macro uncertainties—especially the outcome of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations. Until then, BTC is expected to continue consolidating within the $115,000–$123,000 range. Key developments to watch in early August include Japan’s political trajectory and progress in tariff talks, which could become pivotal moments for determining the market's next directional move.
