TechFlow news, July 15 — According to Jinshi Data, "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote in a recent article: "June's inflation data may keep Fed officials cautious. Policymakers who previously predicted that tariffs would trigger more significant price pressures later this year likely have little reason to change that view after seeing June’s data—especially if retailers delay price adjustments as much as possible. The June figures will only make the upcoming July and August data even more important. Similarly, those policymakers who believe tariffs won’t cause notable inflation (because firms lack sufficient pricing power to sustain higher inflation) also have almost no reason to revise their views following Tuesday’s report." In recent weeks, Fed Chair Powell has indicated that the bar for rate cuts may be slightly lower now compared to spring. This shift reflects an assessment that inflation risks may take longer to materialize and thus could be relatively muted. If the Fed maintains its expectation that inflation acceleration won't be too severe, Powell could potentially open the door to rate cuts as early as September, depending on weakening labor market conditions or improving inflation data.
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