TechFlow news, July 15 — Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that as of July 15, 2025, Bitcoin has strongly broken through its all-time high, briefly rising to approximately $122,850, sparking widespread market expectations of an "altcoin activation season"—with capital spreading from BTC to high-beta assets such as ETH, SOL, and DeFi. Options market signals indicate strong bullish demand, with the put-call skew flipping from +2% to around +5%. Implied volatility remains in a recent low range, while open interest and trading volume have noticeably increased after the breakout, suggesting institutional positioning leans cautiously positive.
Meanwhile, Japan's bond market is experiencing severe volatility: yields on 20-year Japanese government bonds surged to about 2.61%, and 30-year bond yields broke above 3%, both reaching their highest levels since 2000. This reflects market concerns over Japan's fiscal health and interest rate normalization path, potentially triggering structural adjustments in global carry trade flows.
On the macro front, U.S.-Europe trade tensions are escalating, with the EU planning retaliatory tariffs on $84 billion worth of U.S. goods, while the U.S. side continues pressuring Federal Reserve Chair Powell, heightening policy uncertainty. Although markets had initially expected a rate cut in September, strong employment data and policy disruptions have reduced this probability to around 70%. The upcoming June CPI report is expected to show core inflation rising year-on-year to 2.9%. If inflation continues climbing, it will further undermine rate cut expectations and push U.S. Treasury yields higher.
In summary, Bitcoin’s current rally stems from its safe-haven appeal and status as a dollar-credit alternative. Amid rising Japanese bond yields and a potential turning point in global interest rate structures, combined with a positively skewed options market, these factors form a key structural basis for capital rotation from BTC into altcoins.
